The Trump approval rating Texas midterms debate is gaining attention as new October polling reveals competitive races for the U.S. Senate and Texas governor ahead of the November 3, 2026, elections. The latest verified statewide survey measuring President Donald Trump’s job approval in Texas found that 43% of registered voters approved of his performance, while 55% disapproved. Although that survey was conducted in September, October polling provides a more recent look at the political environment surrounding Republican and Democratic candidates across the state.
The distinction matters because presidential approval polls and candidate preference polls measure different things. A survey asking Texans whether they approve of Trump’s performance does not directly predict their votes for Senate or governor. Nevertheless, the latest candidate surveys offer insight into how the national political environment intersects with important statewide contests.
October polling has shown a competitive U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, alongside a closely contested gubernatorial election involving Republican incumbent Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. These developments have increased interest in whether Trump’s standing among Texas voters could influence Republican candidates as the midterms approach.
Latest Trump Approval Rating in Texas
The most recent Texas-specific presidential approval survey identified in the research for this article was conducted by the Marist Poll from September 17 through September 20, 2026.
The survey included 1,139 registered Texas voters and reported the following results:
| Measure | Result |
|---|---|
| Approve of Trump’s job performance | 43% |
| Disapprove of Trump’s job performance | 55% |
| Survey period | September 17–20, 2026 |
| Sample | 1,139 registered voters |
| Margin of error | ±4.4 percentage points |
The findings indicate that disapproval exceeded approval in the survey. However, the results represent opinions during the September field period and should not be described as a new October approval rating.
As of October 12, 2026, the research reviewed for this article did not identify a verified October statewide poll specifically measuring Trump’s job approval among Texas voters. New October surveys of Senate and gubernatorial candidates are available, but they should not be presented as direct measurements of presidential approval.
For readers tracking the president’s political standing, this distinction is essential. An updated candidate poll may provide relevant information about the election without answering whether Trump’s approval rating in Texas has risen or fallen since September.
October 2026 Polls Reveal a Competitive Texas Senate Race
The Texas Senate contest has become one of the most closely watched political races in the country. Republican Ken Paxton is challenging Democrat James Talarico in a contest that could have national implications because Republicans are defending their Senate majority.
Several surveys conducted around the end of September and the beginning of October have produced different estimates of the candidates’ support.
A Trafalgar Group poll conducted October 6–8 reported Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 44%.
A YouGov survey conducted September 28 through October 5 found Talarico leading Paxton by 50% to 44% among likely voters.
Meanwhile, a University of Massachusetts Lowell and YouGov poll issued October 8 reported a tie, with both candidates receiving 45% support. That survey included 850 likely Texas voters, and 7% were undecided.
The differences between these surveys demonstrate why individual results should be examined alongside their methodologies and field dates.
| Poll | Field dates or release | James Talarico | Ken Paxton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | October 6–8 | 47% | 44% |
| YouGov | September 28–October 5 | 50% | 44% |
| UMass Lowell/YouGov | Released October 8 | 45% | 45% |
These numbers are candidate preference measurements, not Trump’s approval ratings. They show the state of the Senate contest during the respective survey periods but do not establish the eventual winner.
Why the Senate race matters for Trump
The Senate contest offers an opportunity to examine whether Republican candidates can maintain support in a state that voted decisively for Trump in the 2024 presidential election.
Trump has publicly supported Paxton, and the president’s involvement gives the contest additional national visibility. His political network and campaigning can help draw attention to the Republican candidate, while the election also provides Democrats an opportunity to compete in a state where Republicans have traditionally dominated statewide races.
However, voters can evaluate candidates differently from the president. Some Texans may approve of Trump but prefer a particular Senate candidate for personal or policy reasons. Others may disapprove of Trump while still supporting a Republican candidate.
The Senate results therefore cannot be explained by presidential approval alone.
October Polling Also Shows a Competitive Texas Governor’s Race
The gubernatorial election provides another important measure of the political environment.
Republican Governor Greg Abbott is seeking another term against Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa. Abbott has a record of winning statewide elections, but recent surveys have shown a closer contest than his previous victories might suggest.
A University of Massachusetts Lowell and YouGov survey released October 8 found Abbott leading Hinojosa, 48% to 44%.
A New York Times and Siena University survey conducted September 22 through October 1 found Hinojosa leading Abbott, 49% to 46%.
The results are not identical, and they illustrate the importance of considering multiple polls rather than relying on one survey.
The Hill and Decision Desk HQ’s Texas governor polling tracker also showed a narrow difference between the candidates in its October 12 estimate. Its reported figures were 47.6% for Abbott and 46.9% for Hinojosa. This figure is a polling average estimate, not the result of a single October survey.
The competing measurements suggest that the gubernatorial contest deserves close attention, although polls cannot establish what will happen on Election Day.
How Trump’s approval could affect Abbott
Abbott’s election is primarily a state-level contest, but the governor’s relationship with the president creates an additional political dimension.
Republican voters who support Trump’s administration may be receptive to candidates who emphasize shared priorities. Conversely, Texans dissatisfied with national policies may evaluate Republican incumbents more critically.
Still, the governor’s race involves issues that are distinct from presidential approval. Property taxes, public education, border security, energy policy, insurance costs and state spending can all influence voter decisions.
Abbott’s own record, Hinojosa’s policy proposals, campaign spending and voter turnout will also matter. It would be inaccurate to attribute the gubernatorial polling figures entirely to Trump’s approval rating.
National October Approval Polls Provide Additional Context
Although a national poll cannot establish Trump’s approval rating specifically in Texas, October surveys provide useful context for understanding the broader political climate.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll reported October 5 found that 32% of U.S. adults approved of Trump’s job performance, while the president’s approval was described as being at a record low for his terms in office. The survey also reported weakening support among Hispanic respondents.
A separate Financial Times and Focaldata survey, published October 12, reported Trump’s overall approval at 34% among registered voters. The survey was conducted October 2–4 and included 2,275 registered voters.
These national measurements differ in their samples, field periods and methodologies. They should not be combined into a single Texas approval figure, nor should either be substituted for the September Marist survey of Texas voters.
Nevertheless, the findings indicate that the president’s standing nationally is an important subject in the run-up to the midterms. Whether national dissatisfaction translates into lower Republican support in Texas remains a separate question that requires state-specific evidence.
For accurate reporting, an article about Texas should identify national figures as national results and reserve the phrase describing Trump’s Texas approval for surveys that actually measure Texans.
Economic Concerns Could Influence the Texas Midterms
Economic conditions are another factor that may influence both presidential approval and candidate preferences.
The September Marist survey found that 38% of Texas respondents said their personal finances had worsened over the previous year. Another 38% said their finances had stayed about the same, while 23% reported improvement.
These results suggest that financial experiences differ considerably among Texas households.
The cost of living, housing expenses, insurance premiums, energy prices, employment opportunities and household purchasing power can influence how voters assess political leadership. National economic policies may affect those judgments, but state and local conditions also play important roles.
Republicans may emphasize economic growth, employment, tax policy and their approach to federal spending. Democrats may focus on affordability, household expenses and whether current policies have delivered sufficient benefits to ordinary families.
Neither party can assume that economic dissatisfaction will automatically translate into votes for its candidates. Voters may disagree about the causes of rising expenses or prioritize other issues when choosing whom to support.
The relationship between economic sentiment and the president’s approval rating is therefore worth monitoring as additional surveys become available.
Independent Voters Could Influence the Election Results
Independent voters are particularly relevant in competitive statewide races because they do not consistently identify with either major party.
The September Marist survey found that Talarico received 55% support among independents in the Senate contest. Hinojosa also received 52% support among independents in the governor’s race.
These results offer insight into the preferences of surveyed independent voters at that time. They do not mean that every independent voter opposes Trump or that the same preferences will remain unchanged through Election Day.
Independent voters have varied priorities. Some focus on economic issues, while others emphasize immigration, education, healthcare, public safety or the candidates’ individual records.
Republicans will seek to maintain support among voters who favor their policy positions, while Democrats will attempt to persuade voters who are dissatisfied with the administration or the state’s leadership.
The importance of independents also explains why presidential approval should not be treated as a direct forecast of statewide results. Voters can distinguish between national and state-level political choices.
Hispanic Voters and Younger Texans Remain Important Groups to Watch
Texas has a substantial Hispanic electorate, making the preferences of Hispanic voters relevant to both parties’ campaign strategies.
National polling in October indicated weaker approval of Trump among Hispanic voters than the Republican Party would prefer. However, national Hispanic polling does not establish Trump’s approval rating among Hispanic Texans specifically.
The distinction is important because the experiences and political priorities of Hispanic voters differ across communities, age groups, occupations and regions.
Republicans will seek to retain voters who supported Trump in 2024, while Democrats will attempt to make gains by emphasizing affordability, immigration, employment and other policy concerns.
Younger Texans are also important. The September Marist survey found that younger voters were more likely than older voters to disapprove of Trump’s performance.
However, presidential approval is not the same as a vote for a particular candidate. A young voter who disapproves of Trump may still support a Republican candidate, just as a voter who approves of the president may choose a Democrat in a specific contest.
Campaign outreach, turnout and the issues emphasized during the final weeks will help shape the electorate that ultimately votes.
What to Watch for in the Final Weeks Before November 3
Several developments could provide a clearer picture of the relationship between Trump’s standing and the Texas midterms.
First, a new statewide presidential approval poll would help establish whether the September Marist results remain representative of Texas voters’ opinions. The most useful survey would explicitly measure approval and disapproval among a clearly identified Texas sample.
Second, additional Senate and governor polls will show whether candidate preferences are changing. Survey field dates, sample sizes, likely-voter screens and margins of error should be reviewed before drawing conclusions.
Third, voter turnout and campaign activity will matter. Candidates need to convert public support into actual votes, and enthusiasm alone does not guarantee participation.
Finally, voters’ economic assessments and views on state and national policies could influence the final results. Developments involving the economy, immigration, education and government spending may affect how Texans evaluate candidates.
No single poll can capture all these influences. A more complete assessment requires multiple surveys and a clear distinction between national political sentiment, Texas presidential approval and preferences in individual races.
Final Outlook on Trump’s Approval Rating and the Texas Midterms
As of October 12, 2026, the latest Texas-specific presidential approval figure verified in the research remains the September Marist result of 43% approval and 55% disapproval. October polling has added important information about the Senate and gubernatorial races, but it has not provided a verified new statewide Trump approval percentage in the research reviewed for this article.
The Senate surveys have produced results ranging from a tie to a lead for Talarico, while the governor’s polls have shown a closely contested race between Abbott and Hinojosa. These figures reflect voter preferences during particular survey periods rather than guaranteed election outcomes.
The central issue is how national political sentiment interacts with the candidates, policies and local concerns that shape Texas elections. A new October poll directly measuring Trump’s approval among Texas voters would provide a more current answer to that specific question.
Until such a survey is verified, the September approval figures should remain clearly labeled as September data, with October candidate polling presented separately.
Share your thoughts in the comments and stay updated for the latest verified polling developments ahead of the 2026 Texas midterm elections.