Tropical Storm Moke is approaching Hawaii from the southeast, bringing a renewed threat of heavy rain, flooding, mudslides, strong winds and dangerous surf just days after Hurricane Lala battered the islands. The storm is expected to pass south of Hawaii, but its outer bands could still produce serious impacts, especially across the Big Island.
The system strengthened into a tropical storm on Friday, August 21, with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. It was positioned roughly 660 miles southeast of Hilo and moving west-northwest at about 9 mph.
The latest forecast keeps the storm’s center south of the Hawaiian Islands. That lowers the risk of a direct landfall, but it does not remove the threat from heavy rainfall. Hawaii Island remains the area of greatest concern as saturated ground faces another round of tropical moisture.
Tropical Storm Moke Latest Update
Moke is continuing its west-northwest movement across the Central Pacific as Hawaii prepares for its arrival.
The storm developed from Tropical Depression Two-C before gaining enough strength to receive a name. Its organization improved as reconnaissance data showed stronger winds around the circulation.
The latest information places maximum sustained winds at 45 mph. The storm’s minimum central pressure is around 1,002 millibars.
Forecast models continue to show Moke passing south of the Hawaiian Islands rather than making a direct crossing. Even so, the storm is close enough to send heavy rain into the islands.
The Big Island faces the most significant effects. Heavy rainfall is expected to begin late Saturday and continue through Sunday and Monday.
The storm’s influence could then spread farther west across the island chain.
Big Island Faces the Greatest Threat
Hawaii Island is expected to receive the heaviest rainfall from Moke.
Current forecasts call for roughly 5 to 10 inches of rain across the southeastern and windward portions of the Big Island. Isolated locations could receive as much as 15 inches.
Those totals are particularly concerning because much of the ground remains saturated after Lala.
Heavy rainfall falling onto already saturated terrain can quickly produce runoff. Streams can rise rapidly, while roads and low-lying areas may become difficult or impossible to cross.
Steep terrain adds another concern. Large amounts of water moving through mountainous areas can destabilize slopes and increase the possibility of mudslides.
Communities that recently dealt with flooding now face another period of potentially dangerous weather.
Flood Watch Covers Hawaii Island
A Flood Watch is in effect for Hawaii Island from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon.
The alert reflects the potential for heavy rainfall and rapid runoff as Moke passes south of the state.
Flood-prone roads could become impassable. Streams may rise quickly, particularly when intense rain develops over higher terrain.
Residents in low-lying locations should remain alert for changes in local conditions. A storm center can stay offshore while rainfall causes significant flooding on land.
The saturated ground left by Lala also means less rain may be needed to trigger flooding than would normally be required.
Rainfall Timing Is Becoming More Important
The timing of Moke’s rainfall could make the situation more difficult for Hawaii.
The first significant effects are expected late Saturday. Rain is forecast to increase across Hawaii Island as the storm approaches from the southeast.
Sunday could bring the most persistent impacts across the Big Island. Heavy showers and tropical downpours may continue for several hours in some locations.
By Monday, moisture associated with the storm is expected to spread farther west across the island chain.
The weather pattern could remain unsettled into early Tuesday as Moke continues moving away.
Because rainfall intensity can vary sharply across Hawaii’s mountainous terrain, some communities may receive much more rain than nearby locations.
Moke Is Expected to Stay South of Hawaii
One of the more favorable aspects of the current forecast is the storm’s projected track.
Moke is expected to pass south of Hawaii rather than moving directly over the islands.
The storm’s closest approach should also occur farther south than Lala’s recent passage.
That track reduces the threat from the storm’s strongest winds. It also makes a direct landfall less likely.
However, the distance between the storm center and the islands does not determine every impact.
Rain bands can extend far from the center. Tropical moisture can also interact with Hawaii’s mountains and produce intense rainfall.
As a result, the current forecast remains concerning even without a direct hit.
Strong Winds Could Still Affect Hawaii
Wind remains another concern, particularly on Hawaii Island.
The strongest winds associated with Moke are expected to remain south of the islands. Still, gusty conditions are likely in exposed locations.
Higher elevations could experience stronger winds than lower areas.
The combination of wind and saturated soil could also increase the risk of falling trees and branches.
Power infrastructure could face additional stress in communities that are still recovering from Lala-related damage.
Residents should secure loose outdoor items and remain cautious around trees, utility lines and areas affected by previous storm damage.
Dangerous Surf Expected Along Parts of Hawaii
Moke is also expected to generate elevated ocean conditions.
Swells produced by the storm could create dangerous surf and strong rip currents around portions of the Hawaiian Islands.
These conditions may continue through the weekend and into early next week.
The threat is especially important for people visiting beaches or entering the ocean.
Large waves can arrive even when skies appear relatively calm. Rip currents can also become difficult to identify during changing surf conditions.
People should follow local beach warnings and lifeguard instructions.
Ocean conditions can become dangerous before the storm reaches its closest point to Hawaii.
Other Hawaiian Islands Could See Rain and Wind
The Big Island is expected to experience the most significant rainfall, but Moke’s effects will not be limited to Hawaii Island.
Other islands could receive periods of rain as the system moves westward.
Maui faces the potential for elevated winds and surf, particularly during the weekend.
Parts of Maui could receive locally heavier rainfall than the general forecast suggests.
Oahu and Kauai are expected to see less severe impacts than the Big Island, but rain and wind could still reach those islands later Sunday into Monday.
The overall pattern will depend on how the storm evolves and how its moisture interacts with the islands.
Why Saturated Ground Is a Major Concern
The biggest difference between this storm and an ordinary tropical rain event is the condition of the ground.
Lala recently delivered extraordinary rainfall to parts of Hawaii Island. Some areas recorded more than 40 inches of rain during that event.
That rainfall caused flooding, damaged roads and bridges, and affected homes and infrastructure.
With Moke arriving only days later, the ground has had limited time to recover.
Soil that remains saturated cannot absorb additional rainfall as efficiently.
More water therefore becomes surface runoff. That runoff can rapidly fill streams and drainage channels.
This increases the possibility of flash flooding even if rainfall totals in a particular location remain below the highest forecast amounts.
Mudslides Remain a Serious Risk
Hawaii’s steep landscape creates an additional hazard during prolonged tropical rainfall.
Water can penetrate already saturated slopes and weaken the ground. Heavy runoff can then carry mud, rocks and debris downhill.
The risk is especially important in areas that experienced previous erosion or damage.
Roads along steep slopes can become hazardous quickly. Falling rocks and debris can block routes with little warning.
People traveling across Hawaii Island during the storm should expect changing conditions and remain prepared for possible road disruptions.
Moke and Lala Are Arriving Close Together
The timing of Moke is unusual because Hawaii is still recovering from Lala.
Lala recently passed close to the islands after strengthening into a hurricane. Its heavy rainfall caused widespread flooding and significant damage.
Some communities are still cleaning up debris and repairing infrastructure.
Power outages also remain an issue in parts of Hawaii Island.
Moke is expected to be weaker than Lala and to pass farther south. That difference should limit the overall wind threat.
Rainfall, however, remains a major concern.
Another round of heavy precipitation could complicate recovery work and create new problems in places already affected by flooding.
Current Moke Forecast Details
The latest available information gives residents a clearer picture of what to expect.
| Forecast Detail | Current Information |
|---|---|
| Storm | Tropical Storm Moke |
| Current strength | 45 mph maximum sustained winds |
| Movement | West-northwest |
| Forward speed | About 9 mph |
| Pressure | About 1,002 millibars |
| Position | Roughly 660 miles southeast of Hilo |
| Main area of concern | Hawaii Island |
| Big Island rainfall | 5 to 10 inches |
| Isolated Big Island rainfall | Up to 15 inches |
| Other islands | Around 1 to 2 inches generally |
| East Maui | Locally up to about 4 inches |
| Main hazards | Flooding, mudslides, wind and dangerous surf |
| Expected track | South of the Hawaiian Islands |
The forecast can change as new observations become available. Residents should continue checking local alerts as the storm approaches.
What Residents Should Watch This Weekend
The storm’s position is only one part of the situation.
Residents should pay close attention to rainfall rates, flood alerts and local road conditions.
The following developments will be especially important:
- Changes in Moke’s track
- Changes in storm strength
- Heavy rainfall rates
- Flash flood warnings
- Mudslide risks
- Strong wind alerts
- Surf conditions
- Road closures
- Power outages
- Conditions near streams and low-lying areas
Rainfall intensity can change quickly. A location that initially receives manageable showers could later experience a much heavier downpour.
Local alerts are therefore more useful for immediate decisions than relying only on the storm’s forecast cone.
Travel Conditions Could Become Difficult
People traveling around Hawaii this weekend should also keep the weather in mind.
Heavy rain can reduce visibility and make roads slippery. Flooding can create sudden travel hazards.
Mountain roads may face additional risks from runoff, debris and falling rocks.
Outdoor activities could also be affected by rainfall, wind and rough ocean conditions.
Travelers should check with airlines, hotels, rental companies and activity providers for location-specific changes.
Airports across Hawaii remain operational, but individual flights can still experience weather-related delays if conditions deteriorate.
Visitors should also avoid entering streams or brown, muddy water after heavy rain. Fast-moving water can hide strong currents and debris.
Moke’s Greatest Threat Is Rain, Not a Direct Landfall
The current forecast does not point toward a direct landfall over the main Hawaiian Islands.
That is important because the storm’s core contains the strongest winds.
Instead, Moke is expected to pass south of the islands while sending moisture and rain bands across Hawaii.
This setup means the storm can cause substantial rainfall without crossing directly over land.
For Hawaii Island, that distinction matters less than the rainfall itself.
If several inches of rain fall across already saturated terrain, flooding can develop quickly.
Forecast Beyond the Weekend
Moke is expected to continue moving west after passing south of Hawaii.
Rainfall will gradually spread across other islands as the system moves along its projected path.
The Big Island should remain the main focus during the earliest stage of the storm’s approach.
By Sunday and Monday, other islands may experience more noticeable rain, wind or surf.
The system is not expected to produce the same level of direct wind threat as Lala, but its rainfall could still cause significant problems.
Forecasters will continue adjusting the outlook as the storm’s circulation changes.
What Makes This Storm Different
Moke presents Hawaii with a combination of hazards rather than one single threat.
The center is expected to stay offshore. That limits the strongest winds.
At the same time, the storm is close enough to transport tropical moisture toward the islands.
The Big Island’s steep terrain can then enhance rainfall.
Recent flooding makes the situation even more sensitive.
That combination explains why officials continue to emphasize preparation despite the lack of a direct landfall forecast.
Tropical Storm Moke Outlook for Hawaii
The latest outlook calls for Moke to remain south of Hawaii while bringing another round of dangerous weather to the islands.
Hawaii Island remains the most vulnerable area. Rainfall could reach 5 to 10 inches across the windward and southeastern parts of the island, with isolated totals approaching 15 inches.
Those amounts could trigger life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially where the ground remains saturated from Lala.
Strong gusts are also possible, particularly around higher terrain. Elevated surf and rip currents could create additional dangers along exposed beaches.
Maui and other islands face lower rainfall totals but can still experience periods of rain, wind and rough ocean conditions.
The storm’s offshore track is favorable compared with a direct hit, but the rainfall threat remains significant.
For Hawaii residents and visitors, the next several days will be about staying alert to changing conditions and acting early when local warnings are issued.
Stay tuned as Tropical Storm Moke moves closer to Hawaii, and share your local weather observations or thoughts in the comments as the situation develops.