As of October 28, 2025, Hurricane Melissa — now a Category 5 storm — is moving dangerously close to Jamaica, bringing catastrophic winds, torrential rain, and life-threatening storm surges. Meteorologists confirm that the south and southwest coasts of Jamaica will face the most direct impact. This includes Westmoreland, St. Elizabeth, Manchester, and Clarendon, where the eye of the hurricane is projected to pass or closely graze within hours.
Hurricane Melissa’s Projected Landfall Zone
Current tracking data shows Hurricane Melissa’s center is positioned southwest of Kingston, Jamaica’s capital, and moving slowly toward the island’s southern shoreline. The storm’s path places the south-central and southwestern parishes at the highest risk.
The parishes expected to endure the worst conditions include:
- Westmoreland: High probability of storm surge flooding and structural damage.
- St. Elizabeth: Anticipated to be one of the first areas hit by hurricane-force winds.
- Manchester: Mountainous terrain could see flash floods and landslides.
- Clarendon: Coastal areas face potential surge heights of up to 12 feet.
The slow-moving nature of Melissa means these regions will face hours of destructive winds and unrelenting rainfall, significantly increasing the potential for flash flooding and power outages.
Why the South and Southwest Coasts Are Most at Risk
Meteorologists highlight that the southern and southwestern coasts are directly aligned with the hurricane’s current trajectory. Since Melissa is approaching from the southwest Caribbean, its outer rainbands and wind fields are already battering these areas.
Other contributing factors include:
- The storm’s counterclockwise rotation, which amplifies storm surge on the southern side.
- Low-lying coastal terrain, making flooding inevitable even before the storm’s core arrives.
- Recent rainfall saturation, causing unstable soil and increasing the likelihood of landslides in hilly areas like Manchester.
These combined elements make Jamaica’s southern belt the epicenter of Melissa’s landfall threat.
Expected Impacts in the Targeted Areas
Residents in southern Jamaica are being urged to brace for historic conditions as Hurricane Melissa approaches. The most severe impacts are forecasted as follows:
- Wind Damage: Sustained winds near 175 mph, capable of tearing roofs from buildings and uprooting large trees.
- Rainfall: Up to 30 to 40 inches of rain in certain areas, particularly in the mountains of St. Elizabeth and Manchester.
- Storm Surge: Coastal inundation reaching 9–13 feet, threatening communities like Alligator Pond and Treasure Beach.
- Infrastructure Collapse: Widespread power failures, impassable roads, and communication blackouts expected across the south coast.
- Landslides: Central and southern hillsides at high risk of major slope failures and road blockages.
Emergency responders warn that entire communities may be isolated for days once the storm makes full landfall.
Preparedness and Evacuations
The Jamaican government has implemented a series of emergency protocols as Hurricane Melissa nears:
- Evacuations: Mandatory evacuations are in effect for low-lying coastal towns and flood-prone neighborhoods.
- Shelters: Over 800 emergency shelters have opened nationwide, including dozens in Kingston, Clarendon, and St. Elizabeth.
- Transport Shutdown: Both airports and seaports are closed, while public transport has been suspended until conditions improve.
- Curfew Orders: Authorities have announced a nationwide curfew to keep residents off the roads and ensure public safety.
- Power and Utilities: The Jamaica Public Service Company has cut power in vulnerable zones to prevent electrical fires and hazards.
Officials emphasize that anyone still in evacuation zones should seek shelter immediately, as conditions will deteriorate rapidly through the evening and overnight hours.
The Situation for U.S. Citizens and Tourists
For American tourists currently in Jamaica — particularly those staying in Negril, Treasure Beach, or Mandeville — local authorities are urging compliance with all evacuation orders. Hotels and resorts across the south coast have activated hurricane response plans and moved guests to reinforced shelters inland.
The U.S. Embassy in Kingston remains operational for emergencies, though communication disruptions may occur once the storm reaches full strength. U.S. travelers are encouraged to stay indoors, avoid flooded areas, and follow instructions from Jamaican disaster officials.
How Long the Impact Will Last
Because Hurricane Melissa is moving at only 2–5 mph, Jamaica is expected to experience prolonged hurricane conditions. The storm could spend up to 12 hours passing across the island, delivering continuous wind and rain.
After impacting Jamaica, the storm is forecast to continue northward toward eastern Cuba and later the Bahamas, though weakened slightly by its passage over land. However, the initial blow to Jamaica’s southern coast is expected to be among the strongest in the country’s modern history.
Timeline of Key Events
| Date / Time (Local) | Event |
|---|---|
| Oct 27 – Morning | Melissa strengthens into a Category 5 hurricane in the Caribbean Sea. |
| Oct 27 – Evening | Outer rainbands begin reaching Jamaica’s southern coast. |
| Oct 28 – Early Morning | Eye of Melissa located southwest of Kingston, moving slowly northeast. |
| Oct 28 – Afternoon | Landfall expected between Westmoreland and Clarendon. |
| Oct 29 – Morning | Storm projected to move off Jamaica and toward eastern Cuba. |
Summary: What Part of Jamaica Will Melissa Hit
In summary, the answer to “what part of Jamaica will Melissa hit” is clear: the south and southwest regions are the primary target zones. This includes Westmoreland, St. Elizabeth, Manchester, and Clarendon, with catastrophic effects expected. Residents in these parishes are facing the full force of Hurricane Melissa’s eyewall and must remain sheltered until officials declare it safe to emerge.
Stay safe, stay indoors, and follow local authorities for emergency guidance. If you have family or friends in Jamaica’s south coast, check in with them once communication lines are restored.