The Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary race has become one of the most closely watched political contests in the country. What once appeared to be a comfortable lead for incumbent Senator Ed Markey has now narrowed considerably, with the most recent polling showing a dramatically closer matchup than anyone predicted just months ago. Here is a deep, up-to-date look at what every major poll reveals — and what it means for the future of this high-stakes battle.
The Race That Rattled Massachusetts Democrats
On October 15, 2025, U.S. Representative Seth Moulton, a moderate Democrat from Salem, officially launched his challenge against 79-year-old incumbent Senator Ed Markey. According to CBS News Boston, Moulton framed his campaign squarely around the need for generational change, saying in his announcement video: the Democratic Party has been “clinging to the status quo” and “isn’t fighting hard enough.” His message drew immediate and intense attention across the political spectrum, setting up what many analysts described as one of the most anticipated Democratic primary contests in the nation.
Markey, who has been a fixture in Congress since 1976 and a senator since 2013, is no stranger to primary challenges. As per CBS News, he successfully defeated Representative Joe Kennedy III by more than 10 points in the 2020 primary — a victory that burnished his progressive credentials. But this time, Moulton’s challenge arrives at a moment of broader national anxiety about Democratic leadership, age, and the lessons of the 2024 presidential election.
The Early Polls: Markey’s Double-Digit Cushion
When polling first began capturing the race in late 2025, Markey held a commanding advantage. According to the UNH Survey Center’s Bay State Poll released on November 24, 2025, the incumbent held a slim but notable lead over Moulton — even as other potential candidates, like Boston Mayor Michelle Wu and Representative Ayanna Pressley, who had not officially entered the race, scored very high favorability ratings among likely Democratic primary voters.
The Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll from the same period told a similar story. As per that survey — conducted between November 19 and November 23, 2025, with 500 registered Massachusetts voters — Markey led Moulton in the Democratic primary. However, the poll introduced an intriguing wildcard: according to the Suffolk University Political Research Center, if Representative Ayanna Pressley were to enter the race, she would edge out Markey by a slim margin of 35% to 34%, with Moulton’s support falling behind both.
That same Suffolk/Globe poll found that Markey led Moulton in a general election matchup against Republican candidate John Deaton, with 54% of registered voters backing Markey versus Deaton’s 31%.
Data for Progress: Markey Up 19 Points — Then 13
In early November 2025, progressive polling organization Data for Progress surveyed 652 likely Democratic primary voters in Massachusetts from October 23 to 26, using SMS and web panel respondents. According to Data for Progress, Markey led Moulton by 19 points in a straight head-to-head matchup. Even after respondents were exposed to positive and negative messaging about both candidates, Markey still maintained a 13-point advantage. The survey noted that Markey began the race with a significantly higher favorability rating of +64, compared to Moulton’s +29 among likely primary voters.
Spring Surge: Markey Leads by 17 Points in April
As the primary season moved deeper into the spring, the Suffolk University/Boston Globe poll conducted from April 9 to April 13 painted a picture of Markey’s continued strength — but with important nuances beginning to emerge. According to the Suffolk University Political Research Center, Markey was ahead of Moulton by 17 points, capturing 47% of likely primary voters compared to Moulton’s 30%, with 20% still undecided.
As per the Suffolk Journal’s reporting on this poll, the age question — which Moulton has made a central theme of his campaign — showed mixed results. Some 26% of likely Democratic primary voters said Markey’s age influenced their voting decision “a lot,” 36% said it influenced them “a little,” and 32% said it had no impact at all. David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, noted: “Although the general electorate of all voters indicate they are becoming less tolerant of older incumbents, these Democratic primary voters put ideology above age differences.”
Breaking down the demographics from the April Suffolk/Globe poll, Markey led 52% to 29% among self-identifying “liberal/very liberal” voters, 48% to 28% among women voters, 51% to 28% in union households, and 50% to 28% among voters aged 56 and above. Moulton, however, led among Hispanic voters with 43% versus Markey’s 37%, and trailed by just three points among “moderate” and “conservative” identifying Democrats.
The UNH April Poll: Markey Still Holds Double Digits
Reinforcing the Suffolk/Globe findings, according to MassTermlist’s reporting on the race, the University of New Hampshire survey conducted in April showed Markey leading Moulton 46% to 33% — another double-digit margin that seemed to stabilize Markey’s overall standing entering the convention season.
The Emerson Bombshell: Race Narrows to Just 5 Points
Then came the poll that rattled the entire race. On May 7, 2025, Emerson College Polling released a new survey that dramatically altered the narrative. As per GBH News, the Emerson poll put Markey ahead of Moulton by just five percentage points — 37% to 32% — with a striking 29% of voters still undecided. Two other candidates, Alex Rikleen and William Gates, each gathered only 1% of support.
According to GBH News, this was Emerson’s first poll of the Massachusetts Senate race, and it produced results substantially different from other organizations. Most previous polls had shown Markey with a double-digit lead, making this finding either a sign of genuine momentum for Moulton or a statistical outlier.
As per Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, Markey’s lead among registered Democrats stood at 13 points, while Moulton held a 38% to 32% edge among unenrolled voters. On gender lines, Markey led women 37% to 29%, while men were essentially split — 38% backing Moulton and 37% supporting Markey. Kimball noted that women and younger voters were more likely to be undecided than other demographic groups, adding another layer of unpredictability to the final outcome.
According to Boston.com, Markey’s favorability rating in the Emerson poll sat at 37%, with 28% of voters describing themselves as neutral or unfamiliar with him. Moulton came in at 31% favorable and 26% unfavorable. For comparison, Senator Elizabeth Warren held a 48% favorability rating, while both Governor Maura Healey and Boston Mayor Michelle Wu scored 45%.
How Both Campaigns Interpreted the Numbers
The two campaigns could not have reacted more differently to the Emerson poll. According to GBH News, Moulton campaign spokesperson Taylor Hebble celebrated the results, saying: “The momentum we are seeing on the ground has translated into an undeniable surge in the polls.” Hebble also highlighted that “for a 49-year incumbent to remain stuck under 50% for five straight polls is a clear signal from Massachusetts voters that they are looking for a new generation of leadership.” The Moulton team also accused Markey of avoiding debates and called for direct engagement.
The Markey campaign, by contrast, dismissed the Emerson findings sharply. As per GBH News, Markey campaign manager Cam Charbonnier stated: “Sometimes a poll is such a clear outlier you have to wonder if they accidentally surveyed a parallel universe.” Charbonnier also signaled that Markey would not engage directly with Moulton in a debate until after the state’s Democratic nominating convention, set for Worcester’s DCU Center in May.
The Convention Factor and John Deaton’s Role
A significant procedural hurdle looms over the Moulton campaign. According to CBS News Boston, Democrats running for statewide office in Massachusetts must secure support from at least 15% of attendees at the state’s Democratic convention to earn a spot on the primary ballot. This threshold represents a potential vulnerability for Moulton, whose generational-change message may resonate differently among convention delegates — who tend to skew toward the party’s established progressive base — than among the general primary electorate.
As per GBH News, Moulton is also actively formulating plans to debate Republican candidate John Deaton — who received the endorsement of the Massachusetts GOP at their nominating convention — with or without Markey’s participation. This general-election framing strategy reflects Moulton’s broader effort to position himself not just as a primary challenger, but as the Democrat best equipped to win in November.
The Ayanna Pressley Variable
No analysis of this race is complete without acknowledging the wildcard that never materialized — at least not yet. According to the Suffolk/Globe November 2025 poll, if Representative Ayanna Pressley were to enter the primary, she would overtake both Markey and Moulton. The UNH Survey Center similarly found that Pressley was very popular among likely primary voters, even without an official announcement. Her absence from the race has arguably benefited Markey by keeping the progressive vote consolidated — but her continued popularity underscores that the field is not yet fully settled in voters’ minds.
What the Polls Tell Us: A Deep Pattern Analysis
Looking across all the available data, several structural realities define this race:
Markey’s floor is remarkably high. Even in the most favorable Moulton poll, Markey holds 37% — a substantial base of progressive loyalists unlikely to be peeled away. His strength with women, liberals, union households, and older voters reflects the coalition he built defeating Joe Kennedy III in 2020.
Moulton’s ceiling is unclear. With 29% to 31% undecided or unfamiliar with him in multiple polls, Moulton has significant room to grow — but also significant work to do. His strength among unenrolled voters and men provides a path, but the primary electorate skews toward groups currently backing Markey.
The undecided bloc is the entire ballgame. Nearly every poll shows a substantial pool of undecided voters. As per the Emerson poll, 29% remain uncommitted. How this bloc breaks — and whether age concerns ultimately override ideological comfort with Markey — will determine the race’s final shape.
Age is a real but not decisive factor. According to the Suffolk/Globe April poll, age matters “a lot” to only about a quarter of likely Democratic primary voters. Moulton’s campaign bet is that this minority can be expanded. Markey’s bet is that ideology and track record outweigh generational arguments in a Democratic primary.
The Broader National Stakes
This race carries implications well beyond Massachusetts. According to the Associated Press, Moulton has framed his challenge explicitly in the context of the Democratic Party’s national failures — including the 2024 presidential election and concerns about age and relevance. If Moulton succeeds in closing the gap and ultimately winning, it could send a powerful signal to incumbents across the country about the limits of seniority and progressive credentialing in a changed political landscape.
If Markey holds on, as most polls still suggest, it will reinforce the argument that Democratic primary voters remain more concerned with ideological alignment and institutional loyalty than with the generational change argument that failed Joe Kennedy III in 2020 and may be set to fail Moulton as well.
What do you think — will Moulton’s momentum continue to build, or will Markey’s deep progressive roots hold firm? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and subscribe for the latest updates as Massachusetts’s most-watched primary race unfolds!