California’s wide-open race for governor is one of the most closely watched political contests in the country heading into the June 2, 2026, primary election. With incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom term-limited and unable to seek re-election, a crowded and fiercely competitive field of candidates — Democrats and Republicans alike — has been battling for the top two spots that will advance to the November general election. So who is actually leading the California governor race right now? Here is a full breakdown based on the very latest polling data.
The Top-Two Primary System: How California’s Governor Race Works
California uses a “jungle primary” or top-two primary system, meaning all candidates from every party appear on the same ballot. Regardless of party affiliation, the two candidates who receive the most votes in the June 2 primary advance to the November 2026 general election. This structure has created enormous strategic complexity in this cycle, as Democrats risk splitting their vote among multiple candidates and potentially allowing two Republicans to dominate the top two spots.
Who Is Currently Leading the California Governor Race?
Xavier Becerra — The Democratic Front-Runner
A University of California, Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll places Democrat Xavier Becerra in the lead with 25% support, followed by Republican Steve Hilton at 21%, with Democrat Tom Steyer trailing closely at 19%.
Becerra, a former California state attorney general and Health and Human Services Secretary under President Joe Biden, began pulling ahead after U.S. Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race amid allegations of sexual misconduct.
According to Emerson College Polling, Becerra’s support surged by nine points since mid-April, driven by his becoming the top choice among Democratic voters at 31%. His campaign has highlighted his track record of leading California’s numerous lawsuits against the first Trump administration and his role in steering the COVID-19 vaccine rollout as HHS Secretary.
Steve Hilton — The Republican Front-Runner
Steve Hilton, who is British-American, was a senior adviser for former conservative British Prime Minister David Cameron from 2010 to 2012 before moving to California, where he co-founded a political crowdfunding platform in Silicon Valley. He hosted a weekly show on Fox News from 2017 to 2023.
President Donald Trump gave Hilton his full endorsement, declaring, “With Federal help, and a Great Governor, like Steve Hilton, California can be better than ever before!” That endorsement is widely seen as a major boost for Hilton’s campaign heading into primary day.
In the final 270toWin polling average, Becerra leads with 25% support, while Hilton sits second at 23% and Tom Steyer at 20%.
Tom Steyer — The Billionaire Democrat
According to the Public Policy Institute of California, which surveyed 986 likely voters, nearly a quarter of those surveyed (23%) said they’d vote for Becerra, followed by Hilton at 20%, Tom Steyer at 15%, Chad Bianco at 13%, and Katie Porter at 12%.
Steyer has spent more than $192 million of his own personal money flooding the airwaves with his ads, making him one of the highest-spending candidates in the race. Despite his massive financial investment, most recent polls place him in a tight contest for second place against Hilton.
The Full Polling Picture: Where Every Major Candidate Stands
RealClearPolitics Polling Average (Final Pre-Primary)
The RealClearPolitics polling average heading into the June 2 primary shows Becerra at 23.8%, Hilton at 23.3%, and Steyer at 21.5%, with Chad Bianco at 10.8%, Katie Porter at 6.5%, and Matt Mahan at 5.0%. The race for second place between Hilton and Steyer is essentially a statistical dead heat.
PPIC Survey (May 14–18, 2026)
The Public Policy Institute of California survey found the leading candidates in the top-two primary to be Xavier Becerra (Democrat, 23%) and Steve Hilton (Republican, 20%), followed by Tom Steyer (Democrat, 15%), Chad Bianco (Republican, 13%), and Katie Porter (Democrat, 12%). Seven in ten likely voters reported they are following the governor’s race very or fairly closely.
UC Berkeley IGS Poll (Late May 2026)
The poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies showed Becerra leading with 25% support, with Hilton at 21% and Steyer at 19% — marking a dramatic rise for Becerra, who had just 5% support in the March Berkeley IGS poll.
The “Doomsday Scenario” Democrats Fear
For months, California Democrats were gripped by a nightmare scenario: two Republicans advancing out of the primary and locking every Democrat out of the November general election entirely.
California Democrats panicked earlier in the cycle when internal polling showed two Republicans — former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — leading the field. State Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks stated, “This initial survey shows two Republicans in the lead, with multiple Democrats trailing behind.”
However, some Californians have been watching governor polls in part to decide how they’ll vote, as the state’s open primary allows the top two vote-getters to advance to November regardless of party. For several months, Republicans Hilton and Bianco appeared to have a shot at locking Democrats out of the ballot. The collapse of Eric Swalwell’s campaign changed the dynamics dramatically, consolidating Democratic support behind Becerra.
Key Candidates and Their Policy Positions
Xavier Becerra (Democrat)
Becerra represented Los Angeles in Congress for more than two decades before being appointed California’s attorney general in 2017. He says he’s open to revising the state’s climate goals to keep fuel affordable for middle-class Californians and wants to declare a state of emergency to freeze utility and insurance rates.
Steve Hilton (Republican)
Hilton wants to lower the price of gas by suspending environmental regulations, cut income taxes for middle-class earners and wealthier Californians, and open natural spaces for housing, particularly suburban single-family homes.
Tom Steyer (Democrat)
Steyer, a billionaire climate advocate, has centered his campaign on environmental issues and economic justice. Despite record personal spending on advertising, his poll numbers have plateaued in the mid-to-upper teens in most surveys.
Chad Bianco (Republican)
Bianco, the Riverside County Sheriff, was once considered a co-front-runner with Hilton among Republicans. However, Trump’s full endorsement of Hilton has significantly shifted the Republican electorate toward Hilton, making Bianco’s path to the top two considerably harder.
Katie Porter (Democrat)
Former Congresswoman Katie Porter is polling at approximately 12% in the most recent PPIC survey, placing her outside the top two but still maintaining a notable share of the progressive Democratic vote.
Voter Sentiment and the Broader Political Context
Aside from the governor’s race, survey data reveals how voters feel ahead of midterm elections. Three-quarters of likely voters said the country is headed in the wrong direction — the highest percentage in over two decades, according to PPIC. Though it’s not surprising that the majority of Democrats polled (92%) agreed with this sentiment, 50% of Republicans also felt the same way.
About six in ten likely voters say they are satisfied with the choice of candidates in the governor’s race, and a similar proportion thinks the top-two primary has been mostly a good thing for California since voters passed Proposition 14 in 2010.
What Happens After the June 2 Primary?
California is holding its general election for governor on November 3, 2026. The primary is June 2, 2026. The two candidates who emerge from today’s primary will face off in what promises to be a nationally watched November contest. If Becerra and Hilton advance as polling suggests, it would set up a rare and high-profile Democrat-vs.-Republican general election in a state that has been solidly blue for decades.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Who is leading the California governor race right now? A: As of the June 2, 2026, primary, Democrat Xavier Becerra leads in most polls with approximately 23–25% support, followed closely by Republican Steve Hilton at 21–23% and Democrat Tom Steyer at 19–21%.
Q: Who is replacing Gavin Newsom as California governor? A: Governor Gavin Newsom is term-limited and cannot run again. The winner of the November 2026 general election will succeed him.
Q: Can a Republican win the California governor race? A: Yes. Steve Hilton, backed by President Donald Trump, is polling in the top two and has a strong chance of advancing to the November general election.
Q: When is the California governor primary? A: The California governor primary is on June 2, 2026. The general election is November 3, 2026.
Q: How does California’s top-two primary work? A: All candidates regardless of party appear on the same ballot, and the top two vote-getters — regardless of party — advance to the November general election.
The California governor race is unfolding in real time — bookmark this page, drop your prediction in the comments below, and stay tuned as the June 2 primary results roll in tonight!