The question when does Social Security run out has become one of the most important financial concerns for millions of Americans. With new projections from the Social Security Administration revealing that the program’s reserves are depleting faster than expected, the issue is front and center for retirees, workers, and policymakers alike.
As of 2025, the combined Social Security trust funds — which pay retirement, survivor, and disability benefits — are projected to be exhausted by 2033. However, this does not mean that Social Security will stop paying benefits altogether. Instead, it means the system will no longer have enough reserves to pay full scheduled benefits, and future payments may be automatically reduced by roughly 20–25% unless Congress intervenes.
Let’s break down exactly what that means, why it’s happening, and how it could impact your retirement plans.
What “Running Out” Really Means
When experts say “Social Security is running out,” they’re referring to the depletion of the trust fund reserves — the surplus money that Social Security has built up over decades.
Social Security is funded primarily by payroll taxes collected from current workers and employers. These taxes are immediately used to pay benefits to today’s retirees. Any extra money collected is invested in special U.S. Treasury bonds — this forms the trust fund.
But as benefit payments have exceeded payroll tax revenues in recent years, the government has had to tap into those reserves to make up the difference. If no changes are made, those reserves are projected to be completely depleted by 2033.
That’s the answer to “when does Social Security run out” — but even after 2033, the program would still be able to pay around 77% to 81% of scheduled benefits from ongoing payroll tax revenue.
In other words, the system doesn’t collapse; it simply runs short of funds to cover everyone at 100%.
Why Social Security Is Running Out
Several major factors explain why Social Security’s finances are strained:
1. The Aging Baby Boomer Generation
Over 70 million Baby Boomers — born between 1946 and 1964 — are retiring, and they’re living longer than previous generations. This puts enormous pressure on Social Security, as more people draw benefits for a longer period.
2. Fewer Workers Paying In
Social Security depends on current workers to fund retirees’ benefits. Decades ago, there were about 5 workers for every retiree. In 2025, that ratio has fallen to about 2.7 to 1, and it’s expected to drop further.
3. Increased Life Expectancy
In the 1950s, the average retiree collected benefits for about 12 years. Today, retirees are receiving benefits for 20 years or more, which naturally increases total program costs.
4. Slower Wage Growth and Inflation
Wage growth hasn’t kept pace with benefit costs. While Social Security benefits are adjusted for inflation each year through the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA), payroll taxes haven’t risen as much, leading to a growing funding gap.
5. Policy Changes and Economic Shifts
Recent reforms expanded benefits for certain groups but did not add corresponding revenue streams. Meanwhile, a slower economy and early retirements during the pandemic reduced overall payroll contributions.
When Does Social Security Run Out? The 2025 Projection
According to the latest projections:
- Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund: Depletion expected by 2033.
- Disability Insurance (DI) trust fund: Expected to remain solvent for a few more years.
- Combined OASI and DI trust funds: Depletion projected for 2034.
Once the trust funds are empty, Social Security will rely solely on the payroll taxes coming in each month. This would cover only about 77%–81% of promised benefits.
That means retirees could see about a 20% cut in their checks unless Congress makes adjustments before that time.
What Happens After the Trust Fund Runs Out
If nothing changes by 2033:
- Social Security will not go bankrupt or end.
- The government will continue collecting payroll taxes and paying benefits.
- However, benefits will be automatically reduced to match incoming revenues.
Here’s an example:
If you’re scheduled to receive $2,000 per month, your benefit might drop to about $1,550–$1,600.
That’s why understanding when does Social Security run out matters — it allows individuals to plan ahead for potential reductions.
How This Affects Different Age Groups
1. Current Retirees (Ages 65+)
You’re least likely to face major benefit cuts in the short term. Full payments are expected through the next decade, though cost-of-living increases might slow down.
2. Near Retirees (Ages 50–64)
This group should pay close attention. If the program’s reserves are depleted around 2033, those retiring around that time may experience lower payouts or a delayed full retirement age.
3. Younger Workers (Under 50)
You have the longest time horizon — and therefore the most uncertainty. While Social Security will still exist, your generation may receive smaller benefits unless reforms extend the system’s solvency.
What Can Be Done to Prevent Social Security from Running Out
Lawmakers have several tools available to strengthen Social Security and push back the depletion date:
1. Increase Payroll Taxes
Currently, workers and employers each pay 6.2% of wages (a total of 12.4%) up to the annual wage cap of $176,100 (for 2025). Raising the cap or the rate would bring in billions more annually.
2. Raise the Full Retirement Age
Currently, the full retirement age is 67 for those born after 1960. Increasing it to 68 or 70 would reduce the number of years benefits are paid, helping stabilize the system.
3. Adjust the COLA Formula
Changing the formula for cost-of-living increases to one that grows more slowly could save the program money, though retirees would see smaller increases each year.
4. Means-Testing Benefits
High-income retirees could see their benefits reduced or taxed more heavily, allowing lower-income retirees to maintain full payments.
5. Reforming Investment Policy
Allowing the trust fund to invest in higher-yield assets (rather than low-interest Treasury bonds) could potentially extend solvency, though this carries political risk.
How You Can Prepare for a Future With Smaller Benefits
While policymakers debate solutions, individuals should take steps now to protect their financial future:
1. Delay Claiming Benefits
Each year you delay claiming Social Security after your full retirement age, your benefit increases by about 8%, up to age 70. This can help offset potential future cuts.
2. Save More on Your Own
Use 401(k)s, IRAs, and other retirement plans to supplement Social Security. A diversified portfolio ensures stability even if benefits are reduced.
3. Pay Off Debt Before Retiring
Reducing fixed expenses such as mortgages, credit cards, and car loans can make lower benefits easier to live on.
4. Consider Working Longer
Even part-time work can bridge the income gap and help delay withdrawals from retirement accounts.
5. Stay Informed
Social Security’s financial outlook is updated every year. Being aware of legislative changes can help you adjust your plans accordingly.
What Are the Chances Congress Fixes This?
History suggests lawmakers will act before benefits are cut. The last major reform came in 1983, when Congress raised payroll taxes and gradually increased the retirement age.
However, political gridlock has slowed progress on new reforms. Both parties agree that Social Security needs fixing, but they disagree on how. The longer Congress waits, the more drastic the required changes will be.
What Running Out Really Looks Like
If nothing changes by 2033, here’s a possible timeline:
| Year | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 2025–2032 | Trust fund reserves decline | Full benefits continue |
| 2033 | OASI trust fund depleted | Benefits reduced by ~23% |
| 2034+ | Combined funds depleted | Only payroll tax revenue used |
Even then, benefits won’t disappear — they’ll just shrink.
Key Takeaways
- The Social Security trust funds are projected to run out by 2033.
- After that, benefits will still be paid, but at about 77–81% of current levels.
- Early retirees will be least affected; younger generations face higher risk.
- Congress can fix the problem through tax increases, benefit adjustments, or raising the retirement age.
- The sooner reforms are made, the smaller and fairer the changes will be.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: Will Social Security completely stop paying benefits when it runs out?
No. The program will continue paying benefits funded by payroll taxes, but recipients could see smaller monthly payments — around 20% less.
Q2: When does Social Security run out exactly?
Current projections estimate depletion by 2033, when the trust fund reserves are exhausted.
Q3: What can Congress do to fix it?
Lawmakers could raise payroll taxes, increase the retirement age, or adjust benefits to extend Social Security’s solvency.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or retirement planning advice. Social Security projections are based on current data and are subject to change with future legislation. Consult a certified financial advisor for advice tailored to your situation.