Tropical storms Atlantic are relatively quiet at the moment, but one area of interest off the west coast of Africa could shake things up later this week. Forecasters are watching a tropical wave that has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression in the mid-Atlantic by late in the week.
🌬 The Current State of Atlantic Storm Activity
The Atlantic basin is experiencing an unusually quiet stretch for mid-September, which is typically the climatological peak of hurricane season. Historical records show that this period usually brings the most intense storm activity of the year, fueled by warm ocean waters and favorable atmospheric conditions. Yet, the 2025 season has so far produced fewer significant systems than expected, leaving experts and coastal communities in a rare moment of calm.
Hurricane Erin: Strong but Offshore
One of the most notable storms of the season to date was Hurricane Erin. The system gained strength over the open waters of the Atlantic, reaching hurricane status and drawing attention from meteorologists due to its rapid development. Despite its power, Erin remained largely a maritime event, sparing the United States mainland from direct impact. While rip currents and high surf were reported along portions of the East Coast, the storm did not cause widespread damage or inland flooding, which are typically major concerns during this time of year.
Tropical Storm Fernand: Short-Lived and Limited
Shortly after Erin, Tropical Storm Fernand developed, but its lifespan and intensity were limited. The storm followed a path that kept it mostly over the ocean, where it eventually weakened and dissipated. Like Erin, Fernand did not make U.S. landfall, and its effects were minimal compared to more destructive storms of past Septembers.
Why the Basin Is Quiet
The relative lack of storm development can be explained by several suppressing factors in the atmosphere:
- Persistent dry air across large stretches of the tropical Atlantic has prevented storm systems from organizing. Hurricanes and tropical storms rely on moist, unstable air masses to strengthen; without that fuel, disturbances often collapse before reaching maturity.
- Saharan dust outbreaks have also played a major role. Dust particles carried from Africa across the Atlantic reduce atmospheric moisture and block some of the sunlight that would normally heat the ocean surface. This layer of dust creates a stabilizing effect, making it harder for storms to develop the towering thunderstorms necessary for intensification.
- Stable atmospheric conditions have further reduced storm chances. A stable atmosphere discourages rising motion, which is essential for cyclone formation. When the environment resists vertical development, even strong tropical waves struggle to organize into tropical depressions or storms.
A Rare Mid-Season Pause
Taken together, these factors have created a rare pause in what is usually the most active stretch of hurricane season. For coastal residents, this has meant a temporary reprieve from the threat of landfalling systems, giving communities time to continue preparations for the rest of the season. For meteorologists, it underscores how even in the peak of the season, atmospheric variability can override otherwise favorable ocean temperatures.
📍 Area to Watch: Tropical Wave Off Africa
A tropical wave has emerged just off the coast of western Africa, near the Cabo Verde Islands, and is currently being monitored closely. The system consists of a cluster of showers and thunderstorms that remain disorganized, but forecasters are watching for signs of better organization as it tracks westward.
🌡 Current Conditions
Right now, development is being slowed by unfavorable environmental factors.
- Dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere is limiting the moisture supply that thunderstorms need to persist.
- Wind shear is also interfering, preventing storms from vertically stacking and organizing into a tropical cyclone.
- Despite these hurdles, sea surface temperatures are warm, providing a supportive energy source should other conditions improve.
🔍 Short-Term Outlook
Over the next 48 hours, the wave is not expected to develop into a tropical depression. Atmospheric stability and dry air will likely continue to suppress significant organization in the near term.
📅 Medium-Range Forecast
Looking further ahead into mid-to-late next week, the environment becomes somewhat more favorable.
- As the wave moves farther from Africa, it could enter a region with less dry air and lower wind shear.
- Under those conditions, forecasters give the system about a 50/50 chance of strengthening into a tropical depression.
🚨 Why It Matters
This wave is a reminder that the Atlantic remains capable of producing storms quickly during peak hurricane season. Even when systems start off weak or suppressed, a shift in conditions can allow rapid development. Communities across the Atlantic basin — especially in the Caribbean and potentially the U.S. East Coast — will continue to keep a close eye on its progress.
⚠️ Why the Atlantic Has Been Quiet
As the Atlantic hurricane season moves through its climatological peak, the basin has been noticeably less active than usual. Several suppressing factors are at play, limiting the number and strength of tropical storms that would typically be developing this time of year.
🌬 Dry, Stable Air
Much of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic is dominated by dry, stable air masses. Without rising motion and deep convection, tropical disturbances struggle to sustain thunderstorms. This lack of vertical development keeps many systems from ever reaching tropical depression strength.
🌫 Saharan Dust Layers
Plumes of Saharan dust sweeping across the Atlantic are also influencing conditions. The dust particles not only reduce atmospheric moisture but also reflect sunlight, limiting the heating of the ocean surface. Together, these effects create a more hostile environment for tropical cyclone formation.
🌪 Strong Wind Shear
Even when storms begin to organize, upper-level wind shear often tears them apart. Strong shear tilts storm structures, preventing the warm core alignment necessary for intensification. This has been a key factor in breaking down multiple disturbances before they could consolidate into named systems.
🌊 Fewer African Easterly Waves
The African easterly waves that commonly act as the “seeds” of Atlantic tropical cyclones have been weaker and less frequent this season. With fewer strong waves emerging from the African continent, there are simply fewer opportunities for the atmosphere and ocean to spin up storms.
📅 Forecast & What to Expect
| Time Frame | Expectation |
|---|---|
| Next few days | Low chance of new storms forming due to unfavorable conditions |
| Mid to late week | Tropical wave off Africa may strengthen; chances rise for tropical depression status |
| Coastal U.S. Threat | None currently — any development is being tracked far east, away from immediate U.S. impacts |
🔥 What Forecasters Are Saying
- Monitoring is focused on the tropical wave near Africa.
- If the dry air and high wind shear ease, storm development could become more likely by mid-week.
- While the Atlantic is calm right now, history shows October often brings strong hurricanes, so the season is far from over.
🔍 Impacts for the U.S.
Although no immediate threats are projected, U.S. coastal residents should remain alert:
- Even distant storms can produce dangerous surf, rip currents, and high swells along the Atlantic coast.
- Moisture from developing storms can bring increased rainfall to Florida, Puerto Rico, or the Lesser Antilles if the system drifts westward.
- Shipping and fishing industries must monitor forecasts for sudden changes in storm paths.
✔️ Final Thoughts
Tropical storms Atlantic may be in a lull, but the wave off Africa has raised the chance of new activity. The coming week could determine if the basin stays calm or sparks back to life. Staying prepared during peak season is always the safest approach.