Texas Senate polling is showing an extremely close 2026 general-election race between Democratic nominee James Talarico and Republican nominee Ken Paxton, with several recent surveys putting the two candidates within the margin of error. The latest publicly available polling includes a September 15–17 Trafalgar Group survey showing Talarico at 46.4% and Paxton at 45.2%, while other recent surveys have also shown a narrow Talarico advantage.
The Texas Senate race is attracting unusually high attention because Republican Sen. John Cornyn is not seeking another term after losing the Republican primary runoff to Paxton. Talarico won the Democratic nomination in March and now faces Paxton in the November general election.
Texas Senate Polling Latest Update
The newest polling available as of September 20, 2026, continues to show a close contest rather than a consistent double-digit lead for either candidate.
A September 15–17 Trafalgar Group poll of 1,079 likely voters found:
| Candidate | Support |
|---|---|
| James Talarico (D) | 46.4% |
| Ken Paxton (R) | 45.2% |
| Ted Brown (L) | 2.5% |
| Don’t know | 5.9% |
That survey put Talarico ahead by 1.2 percentage points.
The result is consistent with several other recent surveys showing a competitive race.
An Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll conducted September 12–14 among 1,000 likely voters recorded Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%, with Libertarian candidate Ted Brown at 2% and 4% undecided. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A ReconMR/Siena University survey conducted September 8–11 was somewhat more favorable to Talarico, showing him at 49% and Paxton at 43%. The survey included 614 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.
Recent Texas Senate Polling
The recent polling picture can be summarized as follows:
| Pollster | Field dates | Talarico | Paxton | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trafalgar Group | Sept. 15–17 | 46.4% | 45.2% | Talarico +1.2 |
| Emerson College/Nexstar | Sept. 12–14 | 47% | 46% | Talarico +1 |
| SoCal Strategies | Sept. 12–13 | 50% | 45% | Talarico +5 |
| ReconMR/Siena | Sept. 8–11 | 49% | 43% | Talarico +6 |
| Mason-Dixon/Telemundo | Sept. 8–10 | 46% | 43% | Talarico +3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | Sept. 8–9 | 47% | 46% | Talarico +1 |
| Univision/YouGov | Aug. 27–Sept. 4 | 48% | 43% | Talarico +5 |
| AARP/Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research | Aug. 30–Sept. 1 | 48% | 44% | Talarico +4 |
These surveys use different samples, field dates, methodologies and questionnaires, so their percentages should not be treated as directly interchangeable. The Texas Politics Project specifically notes that public polls can differ in voter universe and methodology.
What the Texas Senate Polling Average Shows
Polling aggregators also currently place the race in a narrow range.
One current aggregation from Lone Star Ballot shows a 30-day average through September 17 of approximately 48% for Talarico and 44.8% for Paxton, a 3.2-point difference. The average incorporates 12 polls.
Another polling model, Hedge, lists a weighted average of approximately 46.9% for Talarico and 44.1% for Paxton, with the latest poll in its calculation dated September 14.
FiftyPlusOne’s current tracker likewise shows Talarico ahead in its latest Texas Senate polling average, with approximately 47.9% compared with 44.4% for Paxton.
The differences among these averages illustrate why it is useful to look at the individual polls rather than rely on one aggregate number. Each tracker can use a different collection of surveys, weighting system and treatment of partisan or internal polling.
Why the Latest Polls Matter
The most recent surveys are important because the race has moved into the final weeks before voting begins.
The Texas Secretary of State lists November 3, 2026, as Election Day for the general election. Early voting by personal appearance is scheduled to begin October 19 and continue through October 30. The voter-registration deadline is October 5.
That means polling conducted in September provides a snapshot of the electorate roughly six weeks before Election Day, rather than a final measurement of voter preferences.
The September Emerson survey, for example, showed a one-point difference between the candidates, smaller than its ±3-point margin of error. The survey therefore does not establish a statistically distinguishable lead between the two candidates.
Who Is Running for the Texas Senate in 2026?
The general election matchup was established after both parties completed their primary contests.
Democrat James Talarico won the Democratic Senate primary on March 3. The Texas state representative received 52.4% of the vote, compared with 46.2% for U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett and 1.3% for Ahmad Hassan.
Talarico currently represents Texas House District 50. The Texas House identifies him as a member of the Legislature and lists Travis County among the counties represented by his district.
Republican Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination after defeating incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the May 26 runoff.
The final Republican runoff result was approximately 63.8% for Paxton and 36.2% for Cornyn.
Cornyn had served in the U.S. Senate since 2002 and was Texas’s Class II senator. The Senate’s official records list him as a current Texas senator, while the 2026 election will determine who holds the seat for the next term.
How the Republican Primary Changed the Race
The Republican primary was itself a major development in the Texas Senate contest.
Cornyn and Paxton advanced to a runoff after neither received a majority in the March Republican primary. Paxton subsequently defeated Cornyn by more than 27 percentage points in the May runoff.
That produced the November matchup between Paxton and Talarico.
The primary results are particularly relevant when interpreting older polling. Surveys conducted before May 26 may have tested Cornyn against Democratic candidates, Paxton against Democratic candidates, or multiple possible Republican nominees. Those numbers are not directly comparable with today’s general-election polls because the candidate field has changed.
Texas Senate Polling Before the General Election
The public polling record since the general-election matchup was established shows several changes in the margin.
The Texas Politics Project’s poll tracker includes an August 9–10 Emerson survey that had Paxton at 47% and Talarico at 46%. Later surveys generally showed Talarico ahead, including the August UT/Texas Politics Project poll, which recorded Talarico at 42% and Paxton at 39% among registered voters.
The August and September surveys also vary depending on whether they survey registered voters or likely voters.
That distinction matters. Likely-voter surveys attempt to model the electorate expected to participate in the election, while registered-voter surveys include a broader pool of eligible registered voters.
AARP Poll Shows an Age Divide
The AARP Texas poll released September 10 provides additional information beyond the statewide headline numbers.
The survey found Talarico leading Paxton among likely Texas voters overall, but Paxton performing better among voters age 50 and older. AARP also reported that older voters were particularly focused on Social Security, health care costs and rising prices.
The statewide result from that survey was 48% for Talarico and 44% for Paxton among likely voters.
This demonstrates why statewide polling percentages alone do not explain the entire race. Different demographic groups can show substantially different preferences, and turnout among those groups can affect the eventual electorate.
Texas Senate Polling and the Role of Independents
Recent polling has also highlighted the importance of voters who do not identify strongly with either major party.
The AARP survey reported that independent and swing voters were particularly focused on affordability issues.
Because several recent statewide polls have placed the candidates within only a few percentage points of each other, shifts among independent voters and voters who remain undecided could materially change the polling margin.
However, polling should not be interpreted as a prediction of the final result. A poll measures responses from a particular sample at a particular point in time.
Texas Senate Race and Recent Campaign Activity
The contest has also entered a much more expensive advertising phase.
The Houston Chronicle reported on September 20 that more than $100 million in largely negative advertising had been triggered by President Donald Trump’s recent involvement in the Texas Senate race and his support for Paxton. The report said several Republican-aligned super PACs were responsible for much of the spending surge.
Another Houston Chronicle report earlier in September described a significant increase in Republican-aligned outside spending, including substantial spending connected to Senate Republican interests and pro-Paxton groups.
Campaign spending does not translate directly into votes, but the scale of advertising means voters are likely to encounter substantially more campaign messaging as Election Day approaches.
What Polling Does — and Does Not — Tell Voters
Texas Senate polling provides a measurement of voter preferences at the time a survey is conducted. It does not determine who will win the election.
Several factors should be considered when reading the numbers:
- Field dates: A poll reflects opinions during a specific period.
- Sample size: Larger samples generally reduce sampling uncertainty, although methodology remains important.
- Likely versus registered voters: These represent different populations.
- Margin of error: A one- or two-point difference can fall within a poll’s sampling uncertainty.
- Question wording: Candidate lists and question formats can influence reported results.
- Undecided voters: Some surveys still include a meaningful share of undecided respondents.
- Third-party candidates: Including Libertarian candidate Ted Brown can affect the percentages allocated to the two major-party candidates.
The Texas Politics Project cautions that polling surveys differ in sample, methodology, question wording and candidate choices.
Texas Senate Election Date and Voting Timeline
The Texas Secretary of State has established the following important dates for the 2026 general election:
- October 5: Last day to register to vote.
- October 19: First day of in-person early voting.
- October 23: Deadline for the early voting clerk to receive a ballot-by-mail application.
- October 30: Last day of in-person early voting.
- November 3: General Election Day.
On Election Day, Texas polling places are scheduled to be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. under the state’s election calendar.
Texas Senate Polling: Latest Takeaway
The latest Texas Senate polling shows a closely contested race between James Talarico and Ken Paxton. Recent surveys have generally placed Talarico slightly ahead, but the margins remain small enough that several polls fall within their respective margins of error.
The latest Trafalgar survey showed Talarico at 46.4% and Paxton at 45.2%, while Emerson’s September 12–14 survey showed Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 46%. ReconMR/Siena produced a larger six-point Talarico margin, 49% to 43%.
As of the latest available information, the polling data therefore describe a competitive Texas Senate contest rather than a settled outcome. New surveys, changing voter preferences and the campaign’s increasing advertising activity could alter the polling picture before Texans begin early voting on October 19.
The Texas Senate polling picture is changing quickly, so share your thoughts in the comments and stay tuned for the latest verified updates as Election Day approaches.