The 108th PGA Championship has arrived, and the golf world is buzzing. Aronimink Golf Club in Newtown Square, Pennsylvania — a Donald Ross masterpiece untouched by a men’s major since 1962 — finally steps back into the spotlight. While Scottie Scheffler carries the weight of heavy favorite status, the real opportunity this week lies in the fringes of the odds board. Unknown greens, a venue with zero modern data, and a deep, hungry field make this one of the best weeks in recent memory to target sleeper picks and longshots.
Here is the deep-dive breakdown you need before placing your bets.
Why Aronimink Is a Sleeper Goldmine This Week
Before diving into the picks, understanding why this course invites upsets is essential.
Aronimink Golf Club was designed by Scottish-born architect Donald Ross in 1926 and opened on Memorial Day of 1928. Ross himself reportedly returned to the course decades later and declared it his masterpiece — high praise from the man who also designed Pinehurst No. 2 and over 400 other courses across North America.
The course sits on a 300-acre site in the western Philadelphia suburb of Newtown Square. It plays as a par-70 layout stretching to 7,394 yards, featuring massive greens averaging 8,100 square feet — roughly a third larger than the typical Ross design. These putting surfaces have been mowed to within 1/10th of an inch and are expected to run at approximately 13.5 on the Stimpmeter, creating glass-like, near-impossible conditions for anyone who misses their approach.
This is a critical point: Aronimink will reward elite ball-strikers who can control trajectory, flight, and distance into those crowned, turtleback greens. The last major held at a Donald Ross design — Pinehurst No. 2 for the U.S. Open — came down to the wire between Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy, with ball-striking being the separator from first to last.
Add to this the fact that no PGA Tour event has been held at Aronimink since the 2018 BMW Championship, meaning no active player has a genuine data edge. The entire 156-man field is operating blind. That levels the playing field dramatically.
Key Points Summary
╔════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║ – The PGA Championship at Aronimink begins May 14, 2025. ║
║ – Scottie Scheffler enters as the +480 favorite seeking back- ║
║ to-back PGA Championship wins. ║
║ – Aronimink last hosted the PGA Championship in 1962 (Gary ║
║ Player won). ║
║ – The Donald Ross-designed par-70 layout rewards elite ball- ║
║ strikers with strong iron games. ║
║ – No PGA Tour event has been held at Aronimink since 2018, ║
║ meaning zero modern course data for any player. ║
║ – Multiple major winners are among the sleeper candidates ║
║ tipped to contend at 60/1 odds or longer. ║
║ – The 250th anniversary of America's founding makes this ║
║ tournament a historically symbolic event for Philadelphia. ║
╚════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝Aronimink Golf Club: Historical Timeline
| Year | Event | Champion |
|---|---|---|
| 1928 | Course opens (Donald Ross design) | — |
| 1962 | PGA Championship | Gary Player |
| 1977 | U.S. Amateur | John Fought |
| 2003 | Senior PGA Championship | John Jacobs |
| 2010 | AT&T National | Justin Rose |
| 2011 | AT&T National | Nick Watney |
| 2018 | BMW Championship | Keegan Bradley |
| 2020 | KPMG Women’s PGA Championship | Sei Young Kim |
| 2025 | Hanse Golf Design restoration completed | — |
| This Week | 108th PGA Championship | TBD |
Aronimink will become the first venue to host all three of the PGA of America’s rotating major championships: the PGA Championship, the Senior PGA Championship, and the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship.
Course Profile: What It Takes to Win at Aronimink
Understanding the course profile is the foundation of any smart sleeper pick. Here is what the data tells us:
Tee-to-green excellence is non-negotiable. Aronimink profiles as a “second-shot course” — the greens present the real challenge. Crowned putting surfaces with dramatic pitch and yaw mean that even a shot landing on the green in the wrong quadrant can result from a birdie chance to a scramble for par.
Length is a factor, but not the only factor. The par-70 layout measuring over 7,200 yards does reward players who hit the ball a long way. However, proximity to the hole from the fairway matters far more than raw distance.
Complex bunkering demands course management. Ross scattered bunkers in strategic locations that force players to choose their angle and trajectory carefully off the tee. Bold, thoughtless play is quickly punished.
Past Aronimink form is thin, but transferable wins matter. Justin Rose won the 2010 AT&T National at Aronimink and holds a best-of-eight major appearances finish of top 6 in that window. Players with form at similar Donald Ross or classic northeast U.S. designs hold an edge.
The 9 Sleeper Picks for the PGA Championship at Aronimink
Chris Gotterup (+6,000)
If there is one name that deserves to headline the sleeper conversation this week, it is Chris Gotterup. Ranked 10th in the Official World Golf Ranking yet sitting only 32nd on the outright odds board at BetMGM, Gotterup represents a significant market inefficiency.
He is one of only three players to have won multiple times on the PGA Tour in the current season. He has gained strokes on the field in nine of his last 12 events. He brings New Jersey roots and will play with a vocal home crowd behind him in the Philadelphia area.
His ball-striking profile fits Aronimink perfectly. He has the length to take advantage of the par-5s and the iron game to attack Ross’s greens from the right angles. For a first-time major winner in waiting, this setting could not be more ideal.
Min Woo Lee (+6,000 – +7,000)
Min Woo Lee has been building toward a major breakthrough for two seasons. The Australian has posted a tied-for-18th at the Cadillac Championship and a tied-for-14th at the Truist Championship in his two most recent starts — form that shows he is trending in the right direction at exactly the right time.
What makes Lee particularly intriguing at Aronimink is his off-the-tee ability. He is the kind of player who can generate advantages from the tee box that set up shorter, more controlled approaches into these demanding greens. His natural ball flight and creativity with the irons are qualities that translate well to a classic Donald Ross design.
His best odds sit around +7,000 depending on the book, making him excellent value for a player in this caliber of form.
Jake Knapp (+8,000)
Jake Knapp is one of the most compelling pure longshots in this field. At +8,000, he offers a genuine payday for those willing to back a first-time major champion in the making.
Knapp has been a study in consistency, posting a string of top-20 and top-25 finishes throughout the current season. His game is built on a powerful ball-striking profile and a relentless competitive instinct. At Aronimink — a course nobody knows — Knapp’s lack of major experience is less of a disadvantage than at a venue where seasoned champions have built a roadmap.
Experts at Covers.com singled him out as one of three would-be first-time major winners with the game to break through at Aronimink specifically. That is meaningful analysis.
Rickie Fowler (+5,000 – +5,500)
Rickie Fowler may be the most recognizable name on this sleeper list, and at +5,000 or better, he is arguably the best value of the group. This is not a sentimental pick — it is a form-based argument.
Fowler has logged top-10 finishes at both the RBC Heritage and Doral this season. He has rediscovered the feel and confidence with his putter that made him a major contender in his prime. His iron game has always been among the best in the world on his sharpest days, and Aronimink is precisely the type of precision-demanding test that suits his strengths.
He has come agonizingly close in majors before — multiple top-5 finishes at each of the four — and there is a strong argument that his combination of current form and course fit makes him the most likely of the true sleepers to genuinely threaten on Sunday.
Gary Woodland (+10,000)
Gary Woodland is perhaps the most compelling narrative pick of the entire week — and it is not purely narrative. The 2019 U.S. Open champion returned from brain surgery in 2023 and has steadily rebuilt himself into a genuine force on the PGA Tour.
He currently sits second in Driving Distance on Tour and 13th off the tee overall. His worst finish since the Players Championship this season is a tied-for-38th at Doral — remarkable consistency for a man many wrote off entirely two years ago.
His four top-25 finishes this season, including a victory, prove this is not a charity pick. He is gaining strokes in almost every statistical category. Aronimink’s length suits him perfectly, and at 100/1 on some books, the value is undeniable.
Keegan Bradley (+9,000 – +10,000)
Keegan Bradley’s connection to Aronimink runs deep. He lifted the BMW Championship trophy at this very course in 2018. He knows the greens. He knows the bounce patterns off these Ross putting surfaces. He knows what the winning score looks like.
Bradley also won the PGA Championship as a major underdog back in 2011. He understands the mental architecture of winning a major. His game has been coming together nicely in recent weeks, and his intimate knowledge of this specific course — compared to 155 opponents who have never seen it in competitive conditions — is a significant edge that oddsmakers may be underpricing.
Kristoffer Reitan (+8,000 – +10,000)
Sometimes the simplest analysis is the most powerful. Kristoffer Reitan just won on the PGA Tour the Sunday before this major began — and he is still available at +8,000 to +10,000 depending on where you bet.
That recent win is not just about momentum. It is about a player who just demonstrated he is better than 155 peers across four competitive rounds. The confidence, the putting stroke, the tee-to-green execution — all of it is firing. For a player who remains a genuine long shot, the value may be the best available among any named pick this week.
Joaquin Niemann (+10,000)
Niemann is one of the most naturally gifted iron players in world golf. His ability to create trajectory and control ball flight into greens — especially under pressure — is the precise skill set that Ross’s turtleback designs punish or reward most severely.
The Chilean has been navigating a year complicated by off-course uncertainty surrounding the LIV Tour’s future, making his form harder to read. However, he has two top-10 finishes this season and finished tied for eighth in his most recent start. At +10,000, the potential return more than compensates for the uncertainty surrounding his competitive rhythm.
Patrick Cantlay (+4,500)
Patrick Cantlay sits at the shorter end of the “sleeper” spectrum, but given the strength of the field and his recent inconsistency, the value remains real. He is the quiet assassin who has always performed best when nobody is talking about him.
His ball-striking and strategic course management are ideally suited to Aronimink’s demands. If scoring conditions are relatively low — which some insiders believe the PGA of America will encourage given the course’s setup — Cantlay thrives in conditions where precision, not power, determines position. His best odds sit around +4,500, and he remains one of the most underrated threats in any major field.
Comparative Odds Table: Sleeper Picks at a Glance
| Player | Approx. Odds | Key Strength | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Gotterup | +6,000 | Multiple wins in current season, OWGR top 10 | Medium |
| Min Woo Lee | +6,000–+7,000 | Off-the-tee advantage, trending form | Medium |
| Jake Knapp | +8,000 | Consistent top-25 finisher, ball-striking | Medium-High |
| Rickie Fowler | +5,000–+5,500 | Top-10s at Heritage & Doral, restored putting | Medium |
| Gary Woodland | +10,000 | Major champion, 2nd in driving distance | High |
| Keegan Bradley | +9,000–+10,000 | Won at Aronimink in 2018, major winner | High |
| Kristoffer Reitan | +8,000–+10,000 | Won the week before this major | High |
| Joaquin Niemann | +10,000 | Elite iron game, recent top-10 form | High |
| Patrick Cantlay | +4,500 | Strategic course management, ball-striking | Medium-Low |
PGA Championship Favorites Snapshot
For context, here is how the top of the market currently looks heading into Aronimink:
| Player | Approx. Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +480 |
| Rory McIlroy | +850 |
| Cameron Young | +1,200 |
| Jon Rahm | +1,300 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1,600 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | +2,000 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +2,500 |
Scheffler’s win probability sits at approximately 16–17%, which means more than 83% of the market believes someone else wins this week. That is the sleeper bettor’s playground.
The Historical Case for Major Upsets at Aronimink-Style Courses
Major golf history is littered with upsets at classic northeast United States designs. Gary Player was not the heavy chalk when he won at Aronimink in 1962. Keegan Bradley was a 125/1 shot when he lifted the Wanamaker Trophy in 2011. Jimmy Walker was similarly priced when he won the PGA Championship in 2014.
The PGA Championship, more than any other major, has historically been the most forgiving to well-prepared outsiders. Its deep, diverse field and the PGA’s unique setup philosophy means that ball-strikers who may not own the most recognizable names can ascend a leaderboard very quickly over four days.
Aronimink’s vintage design amplifies this tendency. With no modern competitive data from this course for any player, and with greens that will test even the sharpest practitioners, the field is effectively starting from zero. That is the environment where longshots thrive.
Final Verdict: The Single Best Sleeper Bet
If forced to choose one name, Chris Gotterup at +6,000 represents the sharpest value in the sleeper tier. He is a top-10 player in the world being priced as a 60/1 shot. His current-season form is demonstrably elite. His ball-striking profile suits Aronimink’s demands. And in a week where the course neutralizes experience advantages, his hunger for a first major championship is a genuine edge rather than a liability.
For pure lottery-ticket value, Gary Woodland at +10,000 is the boldest play — a major champion, a power hitter, and a feel-good story with legitimate game.
Whichever angle you take, one truth stands above everything else this week: Aronimink Golf Club has waited 63 years for this moment, and it will not yield its trophy easily. That is exactly where sleepers live.
Who do you think will be this week’s major surprise at Aronimink? Drop your sleeper pick in the comments below — and make sure you bookmark this page for live leaderboard updates and post-round analysis all week long!