The 151st Kentucky Derby, set for May 3, 2025, at Churchill Downs, is already buzzing with excitement as bettors and fans dive into the Kentucky Derby 2025 odds. Just days ago, post positions were drawn, and Journalism, a Santa Anita Derby winner, emerged as the 3-1 favorite, holding a four-race win streak. But with a 20-horse field and a history of longshot surprises—like last year’s 18-1 Mystik Dan—can the favorite hold up, or will a dark horse steal the show? Let’s break down the latest news, odds, and expert picks to keep you ahead of the game.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Odds: The Favorites and Contenders
The morning line odds, released post-draw on April 26, 2025, paint a vivid picture. Journalism, trained by Michael McCarthy, sits at 3-1, thanks to his consistent graded-stakes victories. Close behind are Sovereignty at 5-1, fresh off a strong Florida Derby runner-up finish, and Sandman at 6-1, the Arkansas Derby champ. But experts like Gene Menez, who nailed Mystik Dan’s win last year, warn against over-relying on favorites. Menez is fading Sandman, citing his deep-closer style and lackluster Churchill Downs record (third, fifth, fifth in prior starts). Instead, he’s high on Burnham Square, a 12-1 longshot who won the Blue Grass Stakes and thrives passing horses inside—a key skill in a crowded Derby field.
Bob Baffert’s return after a three-year suspension adds intrigue. His horses, Rodriguez (12-1) and Citizen Bull (20-1), are drawing bets, but experts like Jody Demling, who’s hit 11 Oaks-Derby doubles, are skeptical about Rodriguez, noting his Wood Memorial win came against weaker competition. Meanwhile, Luxor Cafe, a 15-1 Japanese shipper with a four-race win streak, is generating buzz for his American Pharoah pedigree and a dominant Fukuryu Stakes victory.
Key Horses to Watch
Here’s a quick look at the top contenders based on the latest Kentucky Derby 2025 odds:
- Journalism (3-1): Four straight wins, including the Santa Anita Derby. His ability to handle traffic makes him a safe bet.
- Sovereignty (5-1): Late-running style suits Churchill’s long stretch. Experts love his progression.
- Sandman (6-1): Arkansas Derby win was flashy, but his closer style and Churchill struggles raise red flags.
- Burnham Square (12-1): Blue Grass Stakes winner with a knack for inside moves. A value pick.
- Luxor Cafe (15-1): Japanese star with a Triple Crown pedigree. Could be this year’s longshot surprise.
Betting Strategies: Win, Place, Show, and Beyond
The Derby isn’t just about picking the winner—it’s about crafting smart bets. A win bet on Journalism is tempting, but the real money lies in exotic wagers like exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. Demling, a SportsLine expert, suggests boxing Journalism, Sovereignty, and Burnham Square for an exacta, covering the top two finishers in any order. For trifectas, add Luxor Cafe to the mix, as his speed could land him in the top three. Last year’s $1 trifecta paid $1,113.84, and with this year’s competitive field, similar payouts are possible.
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For high rollers, the superfecta—picking the top four in order—is a longshot bet with massive rewards. In 2023, a $1 superfecta returned $8,254. Menez recommends including Grande (20-1), trained by Todd Pletcher, in superfecta bets, citing his recent Wood Memorial second-place finish and Velazquez’s veteran jockey skills. Avoid overbetting on Rodriguez, as his front-running style may falter against a fast early pace.
Kentucky Derby 2025 Odds: Longshots and Sleepers
Every Derby has a Cinderella story, and 2025 is no exception. Publisher, a 20-1 maiden trained by Steve Asmussen, is a risky but intriguing pick. No maiden has won since 1933, but Publisher’s second-place Arkansas Derby finish shows promise. Flying Mohawk (50-1), racing on dirt for the first time, and Owen Almighty (50-1), a Tampa Bay Derby winner, are longer shots but could sneak into exotic bets for savvy bettors. Social media buzz on X highlights Luxor Cafe as a fan favorite, with posts noting his “underrated” 14-1 odds and Japanese dominance.
The X-Factor: Pace and Post Positions
The Derby’s 1¼-mile distance and 20-horse field make pace critical. Seven horses, including Rodriguez and American Promise (30-1), are front-runners, setting up a fast early tempo. This favors closers like Sovereignty and Burnham Square, who can capitalize on a fading lead. Post positions also matter—Journalism’s No. 8 slot is ideal, while Sandman’s No. 17 could force him wide. Historically, posts 1-5 have produced 51 winners since 1930, but recent trends favor mid-to-outer gates.
Why the Derby Matters
The Kentucky Derby isn’t just a race—it’s a cultural phenomenon. From mint juleps to extravagant hats, the “Run for the Roses” captivates millions. This year’s $5 million purse and Triple Crown implications raise the stakes. Will Journalism cement his legacy, or will a longshot like Luxor Cafe make history as the first Japanese winner? The unpredictability keeps fans glued to the track.
As post time nears at 6:57 p.m. ET on May 3, the Kentucky Derby 2025 odds will shift with betting action. TwinSpires reports Journalism is now at 4-1 in some pools, with Luxor Cafe climbing to 14-1. Stay sharp, study the form, and place your bets wisely—because in the Derby, anything can happen, and fortunes are made in two minutes.