The race for the U.S. Senate in Texas is heating up, and the Ken Paxton Senate bid is the talk of the Lone Star State. On May 18, 2025, a CBS Texas report dropped a bombshell: a new poll shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading Senator John Cornyn by 16 points, 56% to 40%, in the Republican primary for the 2026 election. This seismic shift has sent shockwaves through Texas politics, pitting a MAGA firebrand against a seasoned GOP stalwart. Paxton’s campaign, fueled by his unwavering Trump loyalty, is reshaping the Republican landscape, and the stakes couldn’t be higher. Let’s dive into the latest developments, the players, and what this clash means for Texas and beyond.
Ken Paxton Senate Momentum: Polls and Power Plays
Paxton’s lead in the polls is no fluke. A May 15 Newsweek article confirmed Paxton’s edge, citing a Senate Leadership Fund poll showing him ahead of Cornyn 44% to 34%, with Congressman Wesley Hunt trailing at 19%. Paxton’s appeal lies in his hardline conservative stance and his role in Trump’s 2020 election challenges, earning him a loyal MAGA base. X posts from May 12 amplify this sentiment, with users like
@DC_Draino declaring, “Ken Paxton is going to be the next US Senator from Texas. We’re all in.” But Cornyn, a senator since 2002, isn’t going down without a fight. His campaign has fired back, labeling Paxton a “fraud” and highlighting Cornyn’s 95% voting alignment with Trump.
The Ken Paxton Senate narrative took another twist with Wesley Hunt’s potential entry. The Houston-area congressman’s inclusion in polls shrank Paxton’s lead, suggesting a three-way race could splinter the vote. Cornyn, meanwhile, fears Paxton’s scandals—impeachment, whistleblower lawsuits, and voter fraud probes—could cost Republicans the seat in a general election against Democrat Colin Allred, who polls show edging out Paxton by one point.
The Stakes: Why the Ken Paxton Senate Bid Matters
This primary is more than a popularity contest; it’s a battle for the soul of the Texas GOP. Paxton’s confrontational style, as noted in a May 14 POLITICO piece, contrasts sharply with Cornyn’s consensus-driven approach. Paxton’s impeachment acquittal in 2023 and his recent $6.6 million whistleblower settlement have done little to dim his base’s enthusiasm. A May 7 New York Times report detailed his latest voter fraud charges against Latino Democrats, reinforcing his “election integrity” crusade but sparking accusations of political targeting.
Cornyn, a former Texas AG himself, has a decades-long track record of conservative wins, from border security to judicial appointments. Yet, his occasional criticism of Trump—like questioning Trump’s 2023 indictment—has painted him as a RINO (Republican In Name Only) in Paxton’s camp. A May 9 NBC News article highlighted their years-long feud, with Cornyn once tweeting, “Hard to run from prison, Ken,” referencing Paxton’s legal woes. Paxton’s response? Calling Cornyn “delusional” and doubling down on his America First agenda.
What’s Next for the Ken Paxton Senate Campaign?
With the primary still 10 months away, the race is far from decided. Paxton’s campaign is banking on grassroots energy and Trump’s potential endorsement, though the former president has stayed silent so far. Cornyn’s war chest and institutional backing give him an edge, but he’ll need to sway moderate Republicans to counter Paxton’s base. Allred, the Democratic wildcard, looms large, with polls suggesting he could capitalize on a Paxton nomination to flip the seat for the first time since 1993.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the key players:
| Candidate | Strengths | Challenges |
|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | MAGA loyalty, grassroots support | Scandals, general election weakness |
| John Cornyn | Experience, fundraising prowess | Perceived as establishment |
| Wesley Hunt | Rising star, broad appeal | Limited name recognition |
| Colin Allred | Strong suburban support | Uphill battle in red Texas |
The Ken Paxton Senate saga is a high-stakes drama that will test Texas’ political fault lines. Will Paxton’s scandals derail his bid, or will his Trump-aligned bravado carry him to victory? Can Cornyn rally enough Republicans to fend off the challenge, or will Allred seize the opportunity? One thing’s certain: this race will be a bare-knuckle brawl, and Texas voters are in for a wild ride.
Call to Action
Stay glued to this unfolding story! Follow the latest polls, candidate moves, and Trump’s potential endorsement on platforms like X or trusted news outlets like CBS Texas and Newsweek. Share your thoughts—do you back Paxton’s bold challenge or Cornyn’s steady hand? Drop a comment and join the conversation!