Donald Trump state level polling data released this week paints a stark picture of a president losing ground even in territory he once carried comfortably. New numbers show his approval sinking in every one of the seven battleground states he won in 2024, with a national net approval rating that has slid to its weakest point of his second term.
The latest figures come from Civiqs, a rolling online tracking poll, dated August 19, 2026. Nationally, 35% of voters approve of Trump’s job performance while 59% disapprove. That puts his net approval at minus 24 points, a steep drop from the positive numbers he enjoyed at the start of his term in January 2025.
Battleground States Show Trump Underwater Everywhere
The most consequential part of Donald Trump state level polling right now involves the seven states that decided the 2024 presidential race. Trump carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin last November. Today, every single one of those states shows him with a negative net approval rating.
Arizona holds his best battleground number, with a net approval of minus 13 points. Georgia sits at the opposite end, registering minus 23. Michigan follows close behind at minus 22, while Nevada stands at minus 21.
North Carolina posts a net approval of minus 16, Pennsylvania comes in at minus 19, and Wisconsin trails at minus 17. None of these seven states delivers Trump a positive rating, and several have worsened noticeably since earlier in the year.
Voters in these states elected Trump by relatively narrow margins less than two years ago. The current numbers suggest that support has eroded across nearly all demographic and geographic lines within battleground territory.
Wyoming Remains Trump Country, Hawaii Sits at the Bottom
Not every state tells the same story. Wyoming continues to stand out as Trump’s strongest base of support anywhere in the country. His net approval there reaches plus 22, with 56% approving of his performance and only 35% disapproving.
Hawaii represents the opposite extreme. Trump’s approval rating there has fallen to just 18%, while disapproval has climbed to 78%. That produces a net approval rating of minus 60, the lowest recorded anywhere in the nation.
The gap between these two states illustrates just how polarized Donald Trump state level polling has become. Deep-red states continue to back him strongly, while deep-blue states have moved further away from his administration than they were on inauguration day.
How the Numbers Have Shifted Since January 2025
State-level tracking throughout Trump’s second term shows a consistent trend. His numbers began relatively strong or evenly split in many competitive states, then steadily eroded as economic pressures and policy disputes mounted.
Florida offers one of the sharper examples of that shift. The state posted a positive net approval when Trump took office and has since moved into negative territory, reflecting concerns among voters over cost-of-living pressures and other economic issues. Ohio has followed a similar path, moving from a comfortable positive rating toward a clear negative one.
These shifts matter because both states have leaned Republican in recent presidential cycles. A decline in previously friendly territory signals broader dissatisfaction that extends beyond traditional swing states.
What’s Driving the Decline
Several factors appear tied to the slide in Donald Trump state level polling numbers. Rising costs for groceries, gas, and housing continue to weigh on voter sentiment across most regions. Concerns about inflation and the broader direction of the economy show up repeatedly in state-level breakdowns.
Younger voters express particularly strong disapproval. Adults between 18 and 34 disapprove of Trump’s performance by a wide margin nationally, and that pattern holds true in most individual states as well.
Independent voters have also moved away from Trump in significant numbers. Because independents often decide close races, their declining approval carries outsized weight in states where Trump won by tight margins in 2024.
Table: Net Approval in the Seven Key Battleground States
| State | Net Approval |
|---|---|
| Arizona | -13 |
| North Carolina | -16 |
| Wisconsin | -17 |
| Pennsylvania | -19 |
| Nevada | -21 |
| Michigan | -22 |
| Georgia | -23 |
Why State Level Data Matters More Than the National Number
National approval ratings capture the overall mood, but state level polling reveals where the political stakes actually sit. Congressional control in November will be decided district by district and state by state, not through a single nationwide figure.
Republicans currently hold a narrow advantage in Congress, and Trump does not appear on the ballot himself this cycle. Even so, candidates in both parties will run on or against his record throughout the fall campaign.
The battleground map shows why Republican strategists have reason for concern. States that delivered Trump narrow wins less than two years ago now show him clearly underwater. That kind of erosion, if it holds through November, could reshape which party controls the House and Senate.
Primary contests held earlier this month in Alaska, Florida, and Wyoming already hinted at friction within Trump’s own coalition, including one closely watched race where his preferred candidate came up short. State level polling helps explain why some Republican candidates are choosing to distance themselves from certain administration positions while others continue to align closely with the president.
Regional Patterns Across the Country
Outside the traditional battlegrounds, regional patterns remain fairly consistent with prior tracking. Southern and Mountain West states generally show Trump with positive or near-even numbers, while West Coast and Northeast states show heavy disapproval.
The Midwest presents a more mixed picture. States like Michigan and Wisconsin, both part of the industrial battleground bloc, show clear disapproval, while some neighboring states with less competitive election histories remain more favorable toward the administration.
This regional split has defined much of Trump’s political career, but the current data suggests the erosion has spread beyond historically hostile territory and into states that once offered him reliable or competitive support.
Looking Ahead to November
With the midterm elections set for November 3, 2026, state level polling will likely continue shifting in the coming weeks. Campaigns in both parties are already adjusting strategy based on where Trump’s numbers sit today.
Approval ratings alone do not predict election outcomes, since voters weigh individual candidates, local issues, and turnout patterns when casting ballots. Still, a president with negative numbers across every major battleground state creates a challenging environment for his party’s congressional candidates.
Analysts tracking Donald Trump state level polling expect additional surveys throughout September and October as the midterms draw closer. Those updates should offer a clearer picture of whether current trends continue, stabilize, or reverse before voters head to the polls.
What are your thoughts on how these numbers might shape the midterm races in your state? Share your take in the comments below.