As Congress continues to battle over budget priorities in late 2025, millions of Americans are asking one pressing question: Will the government shutdown affect Social Security payments?
The possibility of a federal shutdown has created unease across the country. Retirees, disabled workers, and survivors who depend on monthly Social Security checks want answers — and economists like Ariel Cohen Navan are stepping forward to clarify what’s really at stake.
According to Cohen, who serves as Chief Economist at Navan (formerly TripActions), the outlook is reassuring but not entirely risk-free. While benefits will continue, the broader effects of a shutdown could still ripple through the economy in ways that matter to ordinary Americans.
Who Is Ariel Cohen Navan?
Before diving into his analysis, it’s worth understanding who Ariel Cohen Navan is and why his perspective carries weight.
Cohen is the Chief Economist at Navan, a global corporate travel and expense management company that tracks business spending trends. With years of experience studying economic cycles, government policy, and financial markets, Cohen is known for translating complex fiscal issues into plain language.
His commentary often appears in outlets such as Bloomberg, CNBC, and Forbes, where he connects political decisions in Washington to the real-world impact on businesses and consumers.
In the case of the looming government shutdown, Cohen’s analysis focuses not only on whether Social Security checks will continue to go out but also on how political instability could affect inflation, consumer confidence, and the U.S. economy at large.
“Social Security payments are safe,” Cohen emphasized during a recent economic briefing. “But prolonged government dysfunction has consequences — from delayed services to shaken trust in financial stability.”
Understanding the Government Shutdown Threat
To understand the concern, we first need to break down what a government shutdown actually is.
A shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass a federal budget or a continuing resolution (CR) that funds government operations. Without that funding, nonessential agencies and departments close, and thousands of federal workers are furloughed.
Essential services — such as air traffic control, national security, and Social Security — continue to operate, but with limited staffing and slower administrative processes.
As of October 31, 2025, Congress remains locked in a standoff over spending priorities. Lawmakers are divided on defense allocations, immigration funding, and social program budgets. If they fail to reach a deal by mid-November, a partial government shutdown could take effect — potentially the first extended one since 2023.
Will the Government Shutdown Affect Social Security Payments?
The short answer, as Ariel Cohen Navan and other economists affirm, is no — Social Security payments will not stop during a shutdown.
That’s because Social Security is considered mandatory spending, not discretionary. In other words, it’s funded automatically and does not depend on Congress passing annual appropriations bills.
Here’s how it works:
- Social Security benefits are paid from the Social Security Trust Funds, which are financed through payroll taxes collected under the Federal Insurance Contributions Act (FICA).
- Those trust funds operate independently of the annual federal budget.
- Essential employees within the Social Security Administration (SSA) remain on duty during shutdowns to process payments and maintain critical operations.
So even if most government offices close, checks and direct deposits continue to be issued on time.
What Could Be Affected During a Shutdown
Possible Service Disruptions During a Government Shutdown
If the government shuts down, some Social Security services may slow down or pause temporarily. The Social Security Administration (SSA) has outlined specific disruptions in its official contingency plan.
Delays in new benefit applications are one of the most common issues. First-time applicants might experience longer processing times due to limited staffing. As a result, new retirees or disabled workers could wait several extra weeks for approval.
Reduced customer service is another likely challenge. Many call centers and local SSA offices will operate with fewer employees. Therefore, wait times on the phone and in-person visits may increase significantly.
The processing of appeals and disability claims may also move more slowly. Fewer administrative staff will be available to review complex cases or respond to pending requests. Consequently, applicants awaiting decisions could face extended delays.
In addition, the SSA will temporarily suspend non-essential services. This includes issuing replacement Social Security cards or updating personal records for non-urgent reasons.
However, despite these administrative setbacks, benefit payments will continue as scheduled. The automated Treasury systems that handle monthly deposits are considered essential and will remain active during a shutdown.
These service delays can be frustrating, especially for individuals dealing with urgent life changes. Therefore, the SSA recommends using its online tools whenever possible to minimize disruptions.
By checking claim status or submitting documentation through secure online portals, applicants can avoid unnecessary delays and stay informed about their benefits.
Ultimately, while payments remain safe, a shutdown still causes inconvenience for millions of Americans. Staying patient, informed, and proactive helps reduce stress during these temporary interruptions.
Ariel Cohen Navan’s Economic Analysis: Beyond the Checks
While many Americans focus narrowly on whether their payments will arrive, Ariel Cohen Navan urges people to think about the broader picture — how a government shutdown can ripple through the economy.
In his latest economic forecast, Cohen pointed out three major consequences that even a temporary shutdown could cause:
1. Consumer Confidence Could Drop
“Even if checks go out, uncertainty itself has a psychological effect,” Cohen noted.
For retirees and fixed-income households, headlines about government dysfunction can create anxiety. This often leads to reduced spending, which affects local economies — especially small businesses that depend on consistent consumer demand.
2. Inflation and Financial Volatility
A prolonged shutdown could delay key federal reports from agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the Commerce Department. Those delays make it harder for markets and the Federal Reserve to gauge inflation trends accurately.
“When the flow of data stops, markets get nervous,” Cohen explained. “Volatility increases, and confidence in U.S. governance weakens — both domestically and abroad.”
3. Delayed Federal Contracts and Services
Federal employees and contractors may temporarily lose paychecks, which can reduce overall economic activity. According to Cohen’s estimates, a four-week shutdown could shave 0.3% off quarterly GDP growth, depending on its scope.
How Many Americans Could Feel the Impact
The sheer scale of the Social Security program makes any discussion about potential disruption significant.
As of 2025:
How Many Americans Could Feel the Impact
More than 71 million Americans depend on Social Security benefits every single month. These payments are not just numbers — they represent security, stability, and survival for millions of families nationwide.
This vast group includes over 50 million retirees who worked for decades and now rely on their earned benefits to cover daily living costs. Many of them depend on these monthly checks as their primary source of income.
In addition, around 8 million disabled workers receive Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI). These payments help individuals who can no longer work because of medical conditions or serious injuries. For many, these funds mean access to treatment, medication, and independence.
Furthermore, approximately 5 million survivors and dependents — including widows, widowers, and children — rely on survivor benefits. These payments offer critical financial relief to families who have lost a loved one.
Another 8 million Americans receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI). This program provides extra financial support to older or disabled adults with limited income or resources. It helps them afford food, rent, and essential healthcare needs.
Together, Social Security and SSI distribute over $110 billion each month into the U.S. economy. This money directly fuels local spending on groceries, utilities, transportation, and healthcare services.
Therefore, even small administrative slowdowns during a government shutdown can ripple through communities. A delay in processing claims or responding to inquiries can create anxiety for millions who depend on timely payments.
For many recipients, missing or postponing even a single payment could mean skipping meals or falling behind on bills. Consequently, maintaining uninterrupted operations is vital to their financial and emotional well-being.
Social Security is more than a government program — it’s a lifeline. It keeps millions of Americans secure, supports local businesses through spending, and sustains the overall economy.
This is why policymakers, economists, and citizens alike pay close attention whenever the possibility of a shutdown arises. The stakes are high, and the impact reaches far beyond Washington.
Why Payments Continue Even When Congress Fails
The reason Social Security payments remain protected comes down to structure.
When Congress designed the Social Security Act, it created dedicated trust funds that are legally separate from the regular federal budget. These funds are managed by the Treasury Department and draw on payroll taxes paid by current workers and employers.
The U.S. Treasury’s payment systems — including the Electronic Federal Benefit Payment Program — operate on automation and do not require congressional reauthorization during shutdowns.
So, even if lawmakers fail to pass a spending bill, benefit deposits still reach recipients’ bank accounts as scheduled.
What Could Delay Payments (and Why It’s Rare)
While the system is designed to be resilient, there are rare scenarios where Social Security payments might face short-term complications:
- Extended shutdowns could strain administrative staff responsible for manual processing.
- Technical malfunctions or cybersecurity incidents could temporarily disrupt automated payment systems.
- Debt ceiling crises — unlike shutdowns — could affect the Treasury’s ability to make payments if borrowing authority lapses.
However, none of these situations are currently expected. Ariel Cohen Navan emphasizes that the SSA and Treasury have well-tested contingency plans to ensure benefits go out, even during political standoffs.
Read Also:- February 2025 Social Security Payments: What You Need to Know
The Human Side: Anxiety Among Retirees
Despite the facts, fear persists. For many seniors, the phrase “government shutdown” triggers painful memories of delayed services, confusing headlines, and uncertainty.
“People on fixed incomes live month to month,” Cohen said. “When they hear about shutdowns, even if payments continue, it still creates stress — and that stress affects consumer behavior.”
Financial counselors across the U.S. report an uptick in calls from concerned retirees whenever shutdown debates dominate the news cycle. Many worry not only about their checks but also about Medicare, veterans’ benefits, and cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs).
Cohen believes the government has a responsibility to communicate clearly with the public during these times to prevent unnecessary panic.
The Broader Economic Climate in 2025
This year’s shutdown debate is unfolding against a complex economic backdrop.
According to Navan’s Q4 2025 Economic Outlook, the U.S. economy remains resilient but faces headwinds:
- Inflation is hovering around 3.2%, slightly above the Federal Reserve’s target.
- Unemployment stands at 4.1%, with modest job growth across most sectors.
- Interest rates remain elevated, keeping borrowing costs high for consumers and small businesses.
Cohen notes that while the economy has stabilized since the pandemic years, political uncertainty still poses risks to growth. A shutdown might not collapse markets — but it can erode confidence at a time when stability is crucial.
Historical Lessons: What Past Shutdowns Show
History offers clear evidence of how shutdowns affect government operations — and how Social Security endures through them.
- 2013: A 16-day shutdown led to 850,000 federal workers being furloughed, but Social Security payments continued.
- 2018–2019: The longest shutdown in U.S. history (35 days) again left Social Security payments untouched.
- 2023: A brief shutdown caused minimal disruption, though SSA field offices faced temporary staff shortages.
Each case proved the same point: the benefit system remains one of the most stable functions of government — but the surrounding bureaucracy can slow down.
What Ariel Cohen Navan Advises Beneficiaries to Do
Cohen’s advice to retirees and beneficiaries is simple and practical:
- Use direct deposit – Ensure your payments go directly to your bank to avoid mail delays.
- Monitor official channels only – Follow updates from SSA.gov and the U.S. Treasury Department, not social media rumors.
- Keep short-term savings – Have an emergency fund covering at least one month of expenses, especially during periods of government instability.
- Avoid panic spending – Don’t make major financial moves based on shutdown headlines.
“Preparation brings peace of mind,” Cohen says. “The key is to focus on facts, not fear.”
Political Outlook: Can Congress Avoid the Shutdown?
As of late October, negotiations continue between party leaders. While both sides say they want to prevent a shutdown, ideological divisions remain sharp.
- Republicans are pushing for spending cuts tied to border security and energy policies.
- Democrats are prioritizing education, healthcare, and climate programs.
If lawmakers reach a continuing resolution (CR), it would temporarily extend current funding levels through early 2026. Without it, portions of the federal government could close by November 15, 2025.
Even in that case, Cohen reiterates, essential functions like Social Security, Medicare, and Veterans Affairs would continue — though slower processing could frustrate recipients.
The Cost of Political Dysfunction
Economists estimate that each week of a government shutdown costs the U.S. economy $1–2 billion in lost productivity. Beyond the numbers, it weakens international confidence in America’s fiscal management.
“Every shutdown chips away at credibility,” Cohen told Bloomberg. “It sends a signal that our political process is reactive, not proactive — and that’s dangerous for long-term economic stability.”
Cohen also warns that repeated shutdown threats could influence credit agencies like Moody’s or Fitch to review the U.S. credit rating again — a move that could raise borrowing costs for both the government and consumers.
What Ordinary Americans Can Learn
For everyday Americans, the government shutdown debate highlights one truth: financial literacy and preparedness are essential.
Understanding how Social Security works — and what protects it — empowers people to make better decisions. Cohen believes this awareness is especially vital for younger generations contributing to the system.
“Social Security isn’t just about retirees,” he said. “It’s an intergenerational contract. The health of that system reflects the stability of the entire country.”
Conclusion: Stability Amid Uncertainty
The U.S. may be facing another political impasse, but the foundation of Social Security remains strong. Whether or not the government shuts down, beneficiaries can rest assured their payments will continue as scheduled.
As Ariel Cohen Navan explains, the real challenge lies not in the checks themselves but in the broader climate of uncertainty. Shutdowns may not stop benefits — but they do erode confidence, waste resources, and create unnecessary fear.
For millions of Americans depending on Social Security, the message is clear:
Your payments are safe. Your government may be divided, but the system protecting your income is designed to endure — even in times of chaos.
Still, the ongoing debate serves as a powerful reminder that political stability is not just a Washington issue — it’s a national necessity that affects every household, every retiree, and every future generation.
FAQs
1. Will the government shutdown affect Social Security payments in 2025?
No. Social Security payments are considered mandatory spending and are paid from trust funds. They will continue during a shutdown.
2. Could other Social Security services be delayed?
Yes. Administrative tasks like new claims, appeals, and card replacements could slow down due to staff reductions.
3. What does Ariel Cohen Navan recommend for recipients?
Cohen advises beneficiaries to set up direct deposits, stay informed through official SSA sources, and avoid financial panic during political debates.
Disclaimer:-This article provides information based on verified data and expert commentary available as of October 31, 2025. It should not be taken as financial or legal advice. For specific guidance regarding Social Security or federal benefits, readers should consult the Social Security Administration (SSA) or a qualified financial advisor.