Broadway’s most anticipated morning has arrived. The 79th Annual Tony Awards nominations are being unveiled today, May 5, setting off what critics are already calling one of the most fiercely debated nomination cycles in recent memory. With only 30 Broadway productions eligible for Tony Awards this season — compared to last year’s 42 — the competition is narrower but no less intense. Here is a deep-dive into every major category, the frontrunners, the dark horses, and the storylines that could shape Broadway’s biggest night.
When and Where Are the Tony Nominations Being Announced?
Nominations are being announced today by Uzo Aduba and Darren Criss. The first wave of nominees is being revealed on CBS and Paramount+ at 8:30 AM ET, with the full list following on the Tony Awards YouTube channel at 9 AM ET.
The ceremony itself takes place on Sunday, June 7, at Radio City Music Hall, hosted by Grammy-winning superstar P!nk, airing live on CBS from 8 PM to 11 PM ET and streaming simultaneously on Paramount+.
Best Musical: Four Locks and No Surprises
The Best Musical race is one of the clearest in years. Experts and Broadway insiders are nearly unanimously predicting Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), The Lost Boys, Schmigadoon!, and Titanique as the four nominees — making this one of the most predictable fields in recent Tony history.
On paper, The Lost Boys looks like the frontrunner — Michael Arden’s vampire spectacle has the budget, the spectacle, and a leading 11 nominations from the Outer Critics Circle. But Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) has quietly emerged as the season’s underdog darling, the kind of small, uncynical chamber musical that Tony voters have historically rewarded over flashier rivals.
Titanique earns its place despite an unusual eligibility ruling, having been placed in Best Musical despite its robust Off-Broadway, regional, and London run — a notable exception granted by the Tony Awards Administration Committee.
Best Play: A Stacked and Competitive Field
The new play category is where the real drama lives this season. Death of a Salesman, Marjorie Prime, and Bess Wohl’s new drama Liberation are each expected to pull at least five nominations apiece, with Giant, Oedipus, and Proof trailing close behind.
Liberation received a major last-minute boost when it won the Pulitzer Prize for Drama the day before nominations — a timely citation that could only solidify its standing with voters.
The Drama Critics Circle also weighed in, awarding Little Bear Ridge Road Best Play — a result widely seen as a strong bellwether for its nominations prospects.
Best Revival of a Musical: Ragtime vs. Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime and Cats: The Jellicle Ball are considered locks in the Best Revival of a Musical category, with the two expected to compete in a tight contest for the win come June. A third spot is seen as up for grabs between Chess and The Rocky Horror Show.
Lincoln Center Theatre’s revival of Ragtime is predicted by many to lead the overall nomination count this season, with the possibility of as many as six performers from the production receiving acting nods — mirroring its season-leading eight Drama Desk nominations.
Best Revival of a Play: The Most Crowded Category
With 11 eligible play revivals, this is the most populated category on the ballot. Death of a Salesman, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, and Oedipus are considered near-certain nominees, joined by Gina Gionfriddo’s dark comedy Becky Shaw — which is making its Broadway debut but qualifies as a revival under the Tony Administration Committee’s “classics” clause. The fifth slot is expected to go to either Fallen Angels or Proof.
Best Actor in a Play: Nathan Lane vs. John Lithgow
This category has shaped up as one of the season’s great two-horse races. Nathan Lane in Death of a Salesman and John Lithgow in Giant have both delivered performances that critics have lavishly praised all season. Either could win — and both are almost certain to be nominated.
Best Actress in a Play: The Laurie Metcalf Story
The most compelling individual narrative of this entire nominations cycle belongs to Laurie Metcalf. Having starred in both Little Bear Ridge Road and Death of a Salesman this season, she is considered almost certain to receive a nomination for Salesman and is a genuine contender for a second nod for Bear Ridge — which would place her in the extraordinarily rare position of earning two acting nominations in a single season.
Meanwhile, Rose Byrne’s performance in Fallen Angels has generated serious buzz. A Best Actress in a Play nomination would make her one of only 33 performers in history to land both a Tony nomination and an Oscar nomination in the same calendar year.
Also in the conversation is 96-year-old June Squibb in Marjorie Prime, whose nomination would make her the oldest Tony nominee ever.
Best Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Jessica Vosk is predicted to be nominated for Beaches, Lea Michele for Chess, Caissie Levy for Ragtime, and Marla Mindelle for her hilariously committed turn as Céline Dion in Titanique. The final slot is expected to go to either Sara Chase for Schmigadoon! or Christiani Pitts for Two Strangers — a genuinely close call that has divided predictors right up to nomination morning.
Best Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Broadway legend André De Shields is widely expected to secure his fourth Tony nomination for Cats: The Jellicle Ball, having won the award in 2019 for Hadestown. Ben Levi Ross for Ragtime and Ali Louis Bourzgui for his vampiric villain in The Lost Boys round out the predicted frontrunners.
The Bear’s Broadway Invasion
One of the buzziest subplots of the season is that FX’s hit series The Bear contributed three of its stars to Broadway this year. Ayo Edebiri made her Broadway debut to genuinely impressed reviews, while Jon Bernthal and Ebon Moss-Bachrach both appeared in Dog Day Afternoon — which received considerably more mixed notices.
Bernthal is considered the likeliest of the three to land a nomination, given the strength of his performance even against the backdrop of a less-reviewed production. Whether any or all three secure nods will be one of the most-watched results of nomination morning.
Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden is expected to be recognized for The Lost Boys. Zhaillon Levingston and Bill Rauch are predicted nominees for their visionary revival of Cats: The Jellicle Ball, and Lear deBessonet for her work on Ragtime — a production that manages to feel grand despite minimal scenic design.
Best Direction of a Play
The three likeliest nominees are Robert Icke for Oedipus, Whitney White for Liberation, and Joe Mantello for his melancholy staging of Death of a Salesman. The remaining slots are seen as competitive among several strong contenders.
The Scott Rudin Subplot
One of the most talked-about off-stage stories of the season is the return of controversial producer Scott Rudin, who stepped away from the industry after high-profile allegations of workplace bullying. Two of this season’s most acclaimed productions — Little Bear Ridge Road and Death of a Salesman — carry his name as producer.
Laurie Metcalf, who starred in both, has drawn criticism for publicly defending her association with Rudin, complicating what would otherwise be a straightforwardly triumphant narrative around her record-chasing season. Whether Tony voters factor that controversy into their ballots remains one of the season’s open questions.
A Thinner Season for New Musicals — But Still Plenty of Talent
Critics and theatergoers have openly noted this as a quieter year for original musicals. With only six new musicals eligible — Beaches, The Lost Boys, The Queen of Versailles, Schmigadoon!, Titanique, and Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) — the field is smaller than usual. But what the season may lack in volume, it more than compensates for in the depth of its performing talent and the passion of its fanbases.
What to Watch For on Nomination Morning
Today’s announcement promises several record-chasing moments and potential upsets. Keep your eyes on:
- Whether Laurie Metcalf lands a historic double nomination in a single season
- Whether June Squibb becomes the oldest Tony nominee in history at 96
- Whether Rose Byrne secures a rare same-year Tony and Oscar double nomination
- Whether Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) outpaces The Lost Boys as the Best Musical frontrunner
- Whether Liberation’s Pulitzer Prize win delivers an eleventh-hour boost
- Whether any of The Bear’s three Broadway stars break through
The 79th Annual Tony Awards ceremony airs live on CBS and Paramount+ on June 7 from Radio City Music Hall. Check back for the full nominees list as it is revealed this morning.