The latest tracking from Nate Silver Trump approval analysis reveals a sharp drop in national support for President Donald Trump. As of November 26, 2025, his overall approval rating sits at approximately 41.2%, while disapproval reaches 55.9%. This marks the lowest support level of his second term so far, underscoring growing public unease over his leadership.
Current Mood: A Nation Growing Restless
In the most recent update of the polling average, the divide between supporters and critics of Trump continues to widen. His net approval — the difference between approval and disapproval — now rests at roughly –14 points. On key issues such as economic stewardship and inflation, his net approval has plunged even further.
- On the economy, public confidence in his handling recently broke below –20 points.
- On inflation and cost-of-living concerns, his net approval dropped as low as –34 points.
These figures show a steep decline since early 2025, when his approval hovered in the mid-40s. Over the last several months, the momentum has moved consistently against him.
What’s Behind the Slide: Policies, Economy, and Fatigue
Several dynamics appear to be fueling this downward trend:
- Economic pressure and inflation – Many Americans feel the pinch of rising costs, sluggish wage gains, and uncertain economic prospects. As households tighten budgets, fewer express confidence in how the administration is managing the economy.
- Public weariness with controversies and instability – Ongoing political scandals, divisive rhetoric, and frequent flashpoints have fatigued portions of the electorate. For some voters, the cumulative effect of controversies has overshadowed policy achievements.
- Backlash from recent disruptions – The long government shutdown and its ripple effects on federal services, paychecks, and aid programs have shaken trust. Even some traditionally loyal voters have voiced frustration over delayed support and perceived mismanagement.
Together, these factors have chipped away at Trump’s base of support and strained his broader appeal among independents and moderate voters.
Comparison with Earlier Phases: From Early Promise to Troubling Trend
At the start of his second term in early 2025, Trump’s approval ratings were notably higher. Poll aggregators at the time placed him in the mid-40 percent range — a relatively stable if not enthusiastic support level.
Since then, his numbers have followed a steady downward arc. According to most polling aggregates, November marks the lowest point of his second presidency. In some metrics, his current standing approaches levels seen during the lowest dips of his first term.
Unlike brief dips tied to specific events in the past, this decline does not correspond to a single scandal or policy shift. Instead, it appears rooted in more sustained discontent — a sign of long-term voter skepticism rather than short-term backlash.
Polling Aggregates Reflect Broad Discontent
Multiple major polling aggregates now show Trump well underwater across a variety of metrics:
| Poll Tracker | Approx. Approval | Approx. Disapproval | Net Approval / Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver Bulletin | ~41–42% | ~55–56% | –14 to –15 pts |
| RealClearPolitics Avg | ~42–43% | ~55–56% | –12 to –13 pts |
| Other Aggregates (varied) | ~40–43% | ~55–57% | –13 to –17 pts |
These averages draw from a mix of polls: all-adults, registered voters, and likely voters — offering a broad snapshot of national sentiment. While individual polls vary, the general direction is consistent: decreasing approval and growing disapproval.
What This Means for the 2026 Midterms and Political Stakes
Historically, presidents with sub-45% approval ratings often face headwinds going into midterms. With Trump now well below that threshold, his party may confront significant risks. Key implications include:
- Down-ballot candidates could suffer: In competitive districts, association with a politically weakened figure could depress voter enthusiasm for Republicans.
- Independent and moderate voters may feel emboldened: Public dissatisfaction on economic issues may translate into support for change or non-traditional candidates.
- Internal pressure within the party: As approval dips, even loyal voters and lawmakers may push for shifts in messaging or policy priorities to regain public confidence.
Given a narrow House majority and tight margins in the Senate, even modest losses could reshape congressional control.
Beyond Numbers: What the Drop Signals About National Sentiment
Approval ratings are more than political barometers — they reflect public mood, confidence in leadership, and feelings about how the country is managed. The current slump suggests several broader trends:
- Many Americans feel disconnected from the economic recovery touted by officials. For them, bills still feel tight and everyday costs remain high.
- Voters increasingly view governance through a lens of practicality: job security, financial stability, and tangible outcomes over partisan rhetoric.
- The regular churn of scandals and rapid-fire controversies have eroded patience among even previously supportive communities.
In effect, the falling numbers highlight a shift from optimism or hopeful anticipation to growing skepticism about promises — and growing concern about whether the administration can meet basic expectations.
Is a Turnaround Possible? Factors That Could Shift the Trend
Low approval isn’t necessarily irreversible. Historically, presidents have rebounded from dip points depending on developments. Some factors that could influence public sentiment going forward:
- Improved economic data – If inflation eases, wages rise, and job growth continues, public mood could brighten. Economic relief often translates into improved approval.
- Successful policy wins – Major legislative accomplishments on healthcare, infrastructure, or cost-of-living relief might sway public opinion.
- Stabilization of controversies – If scandals subside and administration messaging becomes more consistent, some voters may regain trust.
- External events or crises – Sometimes external challenges (domestic or global) can rally the public around leadership and shift perceptions.
That said, regaining ground likely requires sustained, positive results over time — single events may not be enough.
Why the Polls Now Matter More Than Ever
With the 2026 midterms on the horizon, the tempo of political change is accelerating. Polling aggregates like Nate Silver’s tracker play a critical role in shaping strategy. For policymakers, campaign operatives, and voters, these numbers offer a snapshot of where the nation stands — not just on a candidate, but on public priorities.
If current trends hold, we may see shifting coalitions, strategic pivots, and heightened efforts by both parties to address economic anxiety, voter disillusionment, and governance frustrations.
For citizens, the slump signals a moment to reflect: on policy, leadership performance, and what they expect from government.
What do you think? Have these approval trends changed how you view the current political landscape? Share your thoughts below — your voice helps keep the conversation grounded in real experiences.